2022-06-22-DNV-全球能源转型展望2022—氢能预测至2050（英）_118页_35mb

Summary of HYDROGEN FORECAST TO 2050

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive forecast of hydrogen's role in the global energy transition up to 2050, highlighting its potential, challenges, and the importance of policy support. It outlines the current state of hydrogen use, production methods, and its future integration into various sectors, while also addressing the technical and economic barriers to its adoption.

Main Points

1. Hydrogen as an Energy Carrier

• Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe but is currently not a major energy carrier.
• It is expected to meet only 5% of global energy demand by 2050, significantly below the 15% needed to align with the Paris Agreement.
• Hydrogen will primarily be used in hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, shipping, and high-heat industrial processes, where electrification is not viable.
• Green hydrogen (produced via electrolysis using renewable energy) is projected to account for 72% of hydrogen and its derivatives used as energy carriers by 2050, up from 34% in 2030.
• Blue hydrogen (from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage) will make up 28% of energy-related hydrogen by 2050, with costs expected to decrease from USD 2.5/kg in 2030 to USD 2.2/kg in 2050.

2. Challenges and Considerations

• High production costs and energy inefficiencies are major hurdles for hydrogen adoption.
• Safety concerns are significant due to hydrogen's flammable and hard-to-detect nature, as well as ammonia's toxicity.
• Infrastructure limitations and low energy density of hydrogen make it less suitable for applications not connected to the grid, such as shipping and aviation.
• Storage and transport of hydrogen require specialized systems, with pipelines expected to be repurposed from natural gas in many regions, reducing costs by 10–35% compared to new construction.

3. Policy and Strategy

• Stronger policies are essential to accelerate hydrogen adoption and align it with net-zero goals.
• Europe is expected to have 11% of hydrogen in its energy mix by 2050, significantly higher than the global average.
• Key policy tools include mandates, demand-side measures, and higher carbon prices to incentivize low-carbon hydrogen production and usage.

4. Hydrogen Production Methods

• Electrolysis is the primary method for green hydrogen production, which will become the dominant form by 2050.
• Methane reforming with CCS (blue hydrogen) and coal gasification are still important for current and near-future hydrogen supply.
• Grid-based electrolysis costs are projected to fall to USD 1.5/kg by 2050, making green hydrogen competitive with blue hydrogen in many regions.

5. Hydrogen Demand and Supply

• Non-energy hydrogen (used as feedstock in industries like fertilizer and refining) accounts for 90 million tonnes per year in 2020.
• Energy-related hydrogen is expected to grow significantly, with pure hydrogen being used in steelmaking, refining, and chemical production, and derivatives such as ammonia, methanol, and e-kerosene playing a key role in aviation and shipping.
• By 2050, ammonia will account for one fifth of energy-related hydrogen, and e-fuels like e-methanol and clean aviation fuel will make up another fifth.

6. Transport and Trade Infrastructure

• Pipeline transport will be the main method for transporting hydrogen within and between countries, but intercontinental transport is unlikely.
• Ammonia is a more practical and safer option for long-distance trade, with 59% of energy-related ammonia expected to be traded between regions by 2050.
• Hydrogen pipelines are projected to increase significantly, with over 50% of global pipelines being repurposed from natural gas.

7. Value Chains and Regional Examples

• Four competing hydrogen value chains are identified: solar PV in Southern Spain, geothermal in Iceland, offshore wind in the North Sea, and nuclear power.
• These value chains compete based on cost, timing, geography, emission intensity, and adaptability to end-use.
• Hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol are crucial for decarbonizing transport and will scale in the late 2030s.

Key Information

• Global investment in hydrogen production and infrastructure is expected to reach USD 6.8 trillion by 2050, with USD 180 billion for pipelines and USD 530 billion for ammonia terminals.
• Hydrogen will not scale in passenger vehicles or power generation due to its inefficiency and cost compared to direct electrification.
• Hydrogen's low energy density and high production costs make it less attractive than other energy carriers, unless it is used in specific applications that require it.
• Safety and public perception are critical factors that must be addressed to ensure widespread hydrogen adoption.
• Electrification and hydrogen are expected to coexist and complement each other in the energy transition, with 80% of energy professionals believing in their synergy.

Conclusion

While hydrogen has great potential as a low-carbon energy carrier, its slow and limited uptake by 2050 suggests that stronger policy support is necessary to meet net-zero targets. The report emphasizes that hydrogen is a last-resort solution for sectors that cannot be electrified, and that green hydrogen will become the dominant form due to its renewable source and decreasing costs. However, ammonia and other derivatives will play a key role in transport decarbonization, especially in aviation and shipping. The transition from fossil-based hydrogen to low-carbon alternatives is critical, and the development of hydrogen value chains will depend on technological advancements, policy frameworks, and market readiness.