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Summary of DNV's Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050

Core Content

DNV's Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 presents a global forecast for the development and deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies up to 2050. The report highlights the growing importance of CCS in the context of decarbonization, particularly in sectors that are difficult to reduce emissions through other means.

Main Viewpoints

• CCS at a Turning Point: The report identifies 2025 as a pivotal year for CCS, with significant growth in the project pipeline and expected substantial increases in operational capacity by 2030.
• Sectoral Shift: After 2030, the focus of CCS deployment will shift from fossil fuel-based applications to hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as manufacturing, steel, and cement production.
• Regional Dynamics: North America and Europe are expected to be the leading regions for CCS deployment, with Europe catching up and potentially surpassing North America due to stronger policy incentives.
• Scale and Impact: By 2050, CCS is projected to capture and store 1.3 Gt of CO₂ annually, capturing 6% of global CO₂ emissions. However, this is considered insufficient for achieving net-zero goals.
• Policy and Investment: Policy uncertainty has historically hindered CCS deployment, but there is a growing trend of supportive policies and carbon markets, which are expected to drive significant investment over the next two-and-a-half decades.
• Technology and Cost Trends: CCS technologies are maturing, with average costs expected to decline by around 40% by 2050. Amine-based capture is currently the most mature, but other technologies such as adsorption, membrane, and cryogenic capture are also gaining traction.

Key Information

1. CCS Overview

• Definition: CCS involves capturing CO₂ from emission sources, transporting it, and storing it in deep geological formations to prevent its release into the atmosphere.
• Scope: The report includes carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies such as direct air capture (DAC) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) within the broader CCS framework.
• Applications: CCS is used in a variety of sectors, including power generation, natural gas processing, steel, cement, and hydrogen production.

2. CCS Growth Projections

• Current Capacity: As of today, 41 Mt/yr of CO₂ is captured and stored.
• 2030 Forecast: Capture and storage capacity is expected to quadruple by 2030.
• 2050 Forecast: CCS will capture and store 1.3 Gt of CO₂ annually, representing 6% of global emissions.
• CDR Contribution: By 2050, CDR is expected to capture 330 MtCO₂, accounting for 25% of total captured emissions.

3. Sectoral Breakdown

• 2030: Natural gas production is the largest application (34% of total capture).
• 2050: Manufacturing (41%) will be the largest application, followed by hydrogen and ammonia (North America and Middle East), and coal power (China).

4. Technology Families

• Absorption: Uses chemical solvents (e.g., amine) to capture CO₂, currently the most mature.
• Adsorption: Relies on solid materials to trap CO₂ through physical or chemical bonds.
• Membrane: Uses selective permeation through a thin barrier under a driving force like pressure difference.
• Cryogenic: Separates CO₂ by cooling, typically used in the cement industry.

5. Cost and Efficiency Considerations

• Energy Penalty: A major cost driver, especially for amine-based systems, which require thermal energy for solvent regeneration.
• Cost Reduction: Expected to decline by 40% by 2050 due to technological advancements and economies of scale.
• Modularization: Is increasingly used to reduce costs and project delivery times, particularly in amine technologies.

6. Challenges and Opportunities

• Technical and Economic Barriers: New applications such as in aluminium smelting require tailored solutions and face different challenges.
• Public Acceptance and Policy Support: Strong policy support is critical for large-scale deployment, and public perception remains a key challenge.
• Regulatory and Legal Issues: Evolving regulatory frameworks are necessary to enable the scale-up of CCS.

7. Investment and Deployment

• Investment Trends: DNV forecasts USD 700 billion in CCS investment over the next two-and-a-half decades.
• Current Projects: Reference facilities such as Quest (Canada), Boundary Dam (Canada), and Heidelberg Materials Brevik (Norway) demonstrate the feasibility and application of CCS in various industries.

Conclusion

DNV's forecast outlines the trajectory of CCS from its current state to a significant role in the global energy system by 2050. While the technology is maturing and becoming more cost-effective, the report emphasizes the need for stronger policy support, public acceptance, and continued innovation to meet the requirements of a net-zero future.