2024中国能源转型展望报告-面向2050年的预测-DNV_63页_8mb

ENERGY TRANSITION OUTLOOK CHINA 2024 Summary

Core Content

This report, Energy Transition Outlook China 2024, provides a national forecast of China's energy transition up to 2050, highlighting the country's role in global climate goals and its internal energy strategy. It outlines how China's energy use will evolve, the drivers of change, and the implications for emissions and energy independence.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Energy Independence as a Strategic Goal

• China's energy policy is driven by the goal of energy independence, aiming to reduce reliance on imported oil and gas.
• Coal will be gradually replaced by domestically produced renewables in the power sector.
• By 2050, China will still import 58% of natural gas and 84% of oil, indicating that energy independence is only partially achieved.
• Nuclear will double in absolute terms by 2050, but its share in power generation will remain low at 5%.
• Critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and uranium remain a dependency, requiring careful supply chain management.

2. Energy Use and Emissions Reduction

• China's energy use is expected to peak by 2030 and decrease by 20% by 2050, driven by electrification and energy efficiency improvements.
• Emissions are projected to peak by 2026, with a 30% reduction by 2040 and a 70% decrease by 2050 compared to 2023 levels.
• China's emissions share of global energy-related CO₂ will fall from 33% in 2023 to 22% in 2050, significantly influencing global climate outcomes.
• The carbon intensity per unit of GDP is expected to reduce by 59% by 2030, slightly below the 65% target set by the 14th Five-Year Plan.

3. Renewable Energy Leadership

• China is already a global leader in renewable energy investments, with 35% of global solar and 40% of global wind capacity additions in 2022.
• By 2050, renewable energy installations will more than quintuple, with renewables expected to account for 88% of electricity generation.
• Solar and wind will be the dominant sources, each contributing about 38% of total electricity by mid-century.
• Solar will be paired with storage, mainly batteries, in over a third of installations, while onshore wind will dominate 77% of power generation.

4. Economic and Demographic Drivers

• China's population is expected to peak and decline by 100 million by mid-century, reducing overall energy demand.
• Urbanization will increase, with 80% of the population living in cities by 2040, leading to higher electricity demand.
• GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% per year by 2050, but per capita GDP will rise by over 120%.
• Economic rebalancing towards consumption and automation will reshape energy demand patterns.

5. Energy Efficiency and Policy Framework

• Energy intensity will decrease from 4.8 MJ/USD in 2023 to 2.2 MJ/USD by 2050, a halving of current levels.
• Policy frameworks such as the Energy Conservation Law and Renewable Energy Law are key to driving efficiency and renewable adoption.
• Sectoral efficiency improvements are anticipated: buildings will see a doubling in efficiency, manufacturing will show gradual gains, and transport is expected to reach 75% efficiency by 2050.

6. Role of Technology and Global Influence

• China's clean technology development, especially in renewables, storage, and transmission, will have a global impact.
• Technology cost reductions and learning effects are central to the growth of solar and wind energy.
• China's domestic manufacturing and export capabilities in clean technologies will support global renewable energy goals.

7. Policy Implementation and Challenges

• Centralized governance ensures a consistent policy direction, with Five-Year Plans as the primary framework.
• Local governments are responsible for implementing targets, with performance ratings tied to climate goals.
• While renewable policies are advancing, coal consumption remains a challenge due to capacity mechanisms and market-based measures.
• CCUS and carbon pricing are expected to play a key role in scaling emissions reduction efforts.

Key Figures

• China's population is projected to decline by 100 million by 2050.
• Energy use will peak in 2030 and fall by 20% by 2050.
• Emissions are expected to peak by 2026, with a 30% reduction by 2040 and 70% by 2050.
• Renewable share in electricity generation will rise from 30% (2023) to 88% (2050).
• Solar and wind will each account for 38% of China's electricity by 2050.
• Energy intensity will decrease to 2.2 MJ/USD by 2050.
• Oil consumption will halve by 2050, but 84% will still be imported.
• Natural gas will remain high, with 58% of supply coming from imports.
• China's emissions share will drop from 33% (2023) to 22% (2050).

Conclusion

This report underscores the critical role of China in the global energy transition. While the country is already a leader in renewable energy investments, achieving net-zero by 2050 will require accelerated decarbonization, especially in sectors like manufacturing. Energy independence is a core objective, but reliance on imports for oil and gas remains significant. The combination of policy, technology, and demographic shifts will shape China's energy future, with electricity expected to meet 47% of final energy demand by 2050, surpassing Europe and North America. The Pathway to Net Zero report complements this analysis, showing how China's cumulative emissions could be 113 GtCO₂ lower than expected, aiding global efforts to meet Paris Agreement goals.