2025-06-03-世界银行-突尼斯经济监测_更好的连接性以促进增长_44页_1mb

Tunisia Economic Monitor Summary

A. Recent Economic Developments

• Growth: The Tunisian economy grew moderately (1.4%) in 2024, driven by partial recovery in agriculture and tourism, but hindered by declines in oil, mining, and manufacturing sectors. Growth was below pre-Covid levels.
• Trade Balance: The trade deficit widened (11.4% of GDP) compared to 2023, driven by lower exports but partially offset by higher agricultural exports.
• Current Account Deficit: The deficit narrowed to 1.7% of GDP in 2024 due to a smaller services surplus and stable trade deficit.
• Inflation: Year-on-year inflation decreased to 7% (below the pre-Covid average of ~6%) but remained higher for food products.
• Debt: Public debt rose to 81.2% of GDP, with increasing reliance on domestic financing (53.8% of total debt), raising risks to currency and price stability.
• Budget: Deficit narrowed to 5.8% of GDP (from 6.3% in 2023) due to controlled public spending, despite tax revenue underperformance.

B. Improving Ports for Economic Growth & Development

• Ports remain inefficient due to legacy infrastructure and low connectivity, limiting container traffic and increasing wait times (average 5–18 days).
• Reforms Needed: Digital platforms like Tunisia Trade Net (TTN) and Terminal Operating System (TOS) are underutilized. Enhanced trade facilitation, improved rail/road connections, and addressing institutional bottlenecks are critical.
• Economic Potential: Improving port connectivity and reducing dwell time could yield $9 billion in exports and boost Tunisia’s GDP by 4–5% by 2030, creating 94,000 jobs. Long-term gains (e.g., >10% GDP) possible if ports become transhipment hubs.

(Takeaway: Tunisia faces constraints in its external financing and public debt, but targeted reforms in trade, port efficiency, and fiscal policies could spur growth and connectivity)