2024-11-17-世界银行-也门经济监测_2024年秋季_面临不断升级的挑战（英）_30页_934kb

Yemen Economic Monitor Summary

This report analyzes Yemen's economic challenges. Since 2015, real GDP per capita has dropped by 54% (Figure 1.1). The population faces extreme poverty (74%) and severe food insecurity, with the country ranked 160th in Human Development Index (HDI) in 2014, falling to 186 by 2023.

Current Situation (Q3 2024):

• GDP & HDI: Real GDP per capita fell 4.2% YoY in 2023. HDI regressed to the 7th worst rank globally, with life expectancy decreasing to 63.7 years (from 67.4). Inflation eased in IRG-controlled areas to 3.1% YoY, but deflation persisted in Houthi areas at –9.6% YoY.
• Conflict: International embargoes on oil exports (2022) and Red Sea attacks led to trade collapse. The Suez/ Bab El-Mandeb shipping volumes dropped 54%/64%. The IRG lost 42% of fiscal revenues (excluding grants) in 2024 H1.
• Poverty & Security: Over 74% are poor; severe food deprivation increased by 30-100% YoY. Mental/health issues compound poverty. Recent post-Ceasefire violence and Red Sea escalations increased tensions.
• External Sector: Imports rose 11% YoY due to Red Sea diversions (Houthi ports handle 77%). Current account deficit widened to ~25% of GDP. YER depreciated to 1,917 per USD in Aden since January 2024.
• Monetary Policy: Fragmentation exists between Aden (IRG)/Sana'a (Houthi). CBY-Sana'a forbade new banknotes and prohibited interest-based transactions, impacting banking health (Islamic banks are relatively resilient).
• Financial Sector: Banking system weak; high non-performing loans (NPLs). Money exchangers strain due to liquidity pressures.

Economic Outlook (2024-2025):

• Real GDP: –1.0% for 2024, –0.9% for 2025 (on current path). Oil production stagnant.
• Inflation is likely to rise due to currency depreciation.
• Risks are high: Further Red Sea escalation/de-pegging, conflict/tension flare-ups, poor harvests, or governance collapse.

In Conclusion:
The economy remains critically fragile within a deeply fractured political landscape. Halted oil exports, ongoing conflict, and institutional dysfunction are persistent headwinds. Renewed peace, supported by reconstruction efforts, donor support, and reforms, could yield large economic, social, and financial dividends.