世界银行-《缅甸经济监测》，2023年12月：冲突中的挑战（英）-63页_1mb

报告摘要

Myanmar Economic Monitor: Challenges Amid Conflict (December 2023)

Summary

This report analyzes Myanmar's economy in the context of ongoing conflict and economic instability. Key themes include:

Economic Conditions: Recovery fragile post-2023, with renewed volatility. GDP growth projected at 1% for 2024, exacerbated by armed conflict disrupting livelihoods, trade routes, and supply chains. High consumer inflation (28.6% YoY in June 2023) and sharp kyat depreciation occurred, driven by balance of payments pressures, sanctions, and market interventions.
Macroeconomic Indicators: Inflation remains elevated due to exchange rate volatility and supply constraints. The trade deficit widened to 6.8% of GDP, while fiscal space is constrained with a deficit of 6.4% in 2023. Power shortages persist, negatively impacting businesses, with outages averaging up to 18 hours daily in industrial zones.
Sectoral Impacts: Agriculture faces output declines due to conflict and logistics; manufacturing and garment exports contracted (e.g., 11% fall in merchandise exports), hindered by power issues and trade restrictions. Tourism remains weak. The garment industry, a key growth driver, is constrained by electricity shortages, licensing delays, and reduced competitiveness, limiting its potential.
Outlook and Risks: Growth is subdued in the short term, with risks from escalating conflict, power outages, and financial sector vulnerabilities. Medium-term prospects include persistent poverty, capital flight, and human capital erosion if constraints persist.
Special Focus: Myanmar's garment industry employs ~500,000 workers but faces challenges such as unreliable power, logistics bottlenecks, and foreign exchange shortages, curtailing its growth trajectory compared to regional peers.
Fiscal and Debt: Public debt stable at ~61% of GDP, but increased borrowing from the central bank to finance deficits raises risks. Budget deficits widened due to weak revenues and reduced spending.