2022-02-10-牛津经济研究院-US_Midwest_and_South_in_the_vanguard_of_spiking_US_inflation_4页_355kb

US inflation in late 2021 was most pronounced in the Midwest and South, with regional CPI inflation averaging 7.2% y/y and 7.1% y/y respectively, higher than the national average of 6.7%. This surge was driven by strong demand, limited supply, low economic slack, and tight labor markets. Core goods inflation peaked in these regions (+10% and +9.3% y/y), contributing significantly to the national increase, while services inflation, particularly housing costs like owners' equivalent rent (OER), rose fastest in the Midwest and South. Looking forward, inflation was expected to moderate in 2022 as supply chains improved and Fed policies tightened, but risks included ongoing supply bottlenecks, tighter labor markets, and rising inflation expectations, potentially delaying cooling.