2021-09-27-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_Energy_prices_put_another_dent_in_near-term_recovery_4页_355kb

Eurozone Energy Price Surge Summary

• Main Findings:

  • Energy prices, particularly gas and electricity, surged to record highs in August 2021 due to post-lockdown demand and supply-side issues, amplifying inflation and potentially accelerating ECB stimulus withdrawal.
  • This increase is expected to rise inflation to near 4% in Q4 2021, squeeze household incomes, and drag on GDP growth by 0.2pp in 2022, though impacted by cross-country differences in price transmission.
  • Price transmission varies by country due to energy market structures and policies, with high-pass-through scenarios possibly doubling economic impact.
  • Energy costs may peak and fall in 2022, but inflation could persist above 2% in early 2022, influencing ECB's asset purchase decisions without affecting policy rates.
  • High-income households and energy-intensive firms are most affected, while fiscal responses may limit some drag on growth.

• Implications: The surge introduces significant uncertainty, with risks skewed to the downside for recovery, but overall benign effects if energy prices stabilize.