2022-02-28-牛津经济研究院-US_Metros_Outlook_Spending_profiles_will_continue_to_evolve_across_US_metros_6页_280kb

US Metros Spending Outlook (February 2022)

Core Findings

1. Spending Trend Evolution

   • US consumer consumption will remain a key pillar of future economic growth, driven by strong fundamentals (rising wages, pent-up demand) despite near-term headwinds (inflation, pandemic easing).
   • Goods spending is shifting from durable goods and essentials toward discretionary items and in-person services, particularly leisure and hospitality, as pandemic restrictions lift.
   • By 2030, food at-home spending declines across all metros, while dining out and hospitality grow strongly.

2. Regional Growth Disparities

   • Southern metros (e.g., Austin, Phoenix, Miami) lead in spending growth due to population/income growth, strong net migration, and aging populations.
   • Cities in the Midwest and East (e.g., Chicago, New York) lag in spending growth.
   • Austin is projected to have the fastest aggregate spending growth over 2019–2030, nearly double Chicago's pace.

3. Sector-Specific Growth

   • Health spending will grow fastest (25% of additional dollars) due to aging populations and robust demand.
   • Hospitality & Recreation rebound strongly post-pandemic, supported by pent-up demand and rising disposable incomes.
   • Southern metros show fastest health sector growth, e.g., Austin, Phoenix, and Miami.

4. Spending Profile Variations

   • Metro-specific spending differs significantly by category. For example:
     • Houston residents (2030) spend the highest share on recreation (~14% of total budget).
     • San Jose allocates the largest share to restaurants and hotels (~11% of budget), twice that of Miami.
     • Transport and communications spending is highest in Austin relative to New York.

Key Growth Drivers

• Aging & Growing Populations: Fuel health and personal care spending.
• Pent-Up Demand: Wealthier households (higher share of discretionary services) drive hospitality recovery.
• Labor Market Strength: Regions with strong job growth (e.g., Southern cities) see faster consumption.

Appendix Summary

• Full consumer spending recovery (pre-pandemic levels) across all categories isn't expected until 2023.
• Package holidays, non-personal transport, and accommodation services are among the last to recover.