20240430-农银国际证券-经济透视_中国4月官方综合PMI产出指数有所回落_3页_794kb

Economic Analysis Summary - China April 2024

Key PMI Data

• Official Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 was 50.4, a 0.4 percentage point decline from March, slightly above the expected 50.3. The decrease resulted primarily from a high base effect and ongoing weak demand, with manufacturing surveys indicating high levels of demand concerns.
• Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell to 51.2, down 1.8 points from March, also below market expectations of 52.3, mainly due to a slowdown in services activities.
• Composite PMI Output Index decreased to 51.7, a 1-point drop from March, reflecting an overall economic cooling but maintaining expansion status.
• Detailed analysis showed mixed signals: manufacturing production increased while new orders fell; services sector weakened, impacting key industries like accommodation and real estate.

Economic Status and Challenges

The economy showed a slight retreat in April, with all PMI indicators remaining above the 50 threshold, indicating continued expansion. However, aggregate demand deficiency and persistent real estate stagnation are the primary challenges, with high proportions of firms citing demand issues.

Policy Responses

The CPC Central Committee Politburo meeting on April 30 stressed proactive macro-policy implementation, including fiscal measures like issuing ultra-long-term special bonds and monetary policies to support实体经济. For real estate, it emphasized "demand-side reforms," ensuring home deliveries and addressing supply-demand imbalances to foster high-quality development.

Notes: Steady industrial growth is noted, particularly in equipment and high-tech manufacturing, but overall economic pressure persists due to external and internal factors.