2025-05-13-世界银行-_非洲脉搏_第31期_2025年春季_改善非洲治理和为人民服务（英）_100页_5mb

Summary of Africa’s Pulse - April 2025 Issue

1. Recent Developments and Outlook

• Economic Growth: Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2025, accelerating to 4.3% annually from 2026–27. Growth in Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa remains a drag, though other regions like Eastern and Southern Africa show stronger potential.
• Inflation: Inflation is converging toward targets, with a median rate of 4.5% in 2024 and an expected rebound to 4.6% in 2025. However, seven countries still face double-digit inflation.
• Fiscal Position: Primary deficits are narrowing, with a projected shift toward a slight surplus in 2026–27. Public debt has surged, doubling to 63.2% of GDP in 2024, constrained by limited revenue mobilization and high debt service.
• External Risks: Growth risks are tilted to the downside due to global uncertainty, trade fragmentation, and climate challenges. Net external debt flows declined post-pandemic, with multilateral creditors playing a larger role.

2. Improving How Governments Deliver for People

• Citizen Dissatisfaction: Protests and political instability are driven by poor economic opportunities, weak service delivery, and elite capture. Youth unemployment and inequality exacerbate these issues.
• Concentration of Power: Exclusive politics hinder inclusive growth, leading to regressive policies and weak institutions. Democracies, while improving accountability, often struggle with clientelism and political interference.
• Service Delivery: Public services remain inadequate, with significant informal sector biases. Revenue collection is hampered by low trust, corruption, and weak enforcement, widening inequality.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Prudent Monetary Policy: Central banks must balance inflation control and support for growth, managing risks from global policy uncertainty.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization through fairer taxation, improve transparency, and manage debt sustainably to reduce vulnerabilities.
• Inclusive Governance: Enhance accountability through technology, civil society engagement, and reforms to combat corruption and rent-seeking.
• Market Competitiveness: Strengthen competition authorities to level the playing field, promote private investment, and ensure fair access for small businesses.
• Supranational Cooperation: Address illicit flows, climate vulnerabilities, and regional integration to foster inclusive growth and shared prosperity.

4. Conclusions
Governments must prioritize equitable service delivery and inclusive governance to meet the demands of a rapidly growing population. Strengthening fiscal transparency, managing debt responsibly, and fostering competitive markets are critical for sustainable development. International cooperation is essential to counter external risks and amplify domestic reforms.