世界银行-《非洲的脉搏》，第27期，2023年4月：在低碳转型期间利用资源财富（英）-2023.4-100页_5mb

报告摘要

Economic Growth: Sub-Saharan Africa's growth decelerated to 3.1% in 2023 (down from 3.6% in 2022),bottoming out but expected to rebound to 3.7% and 3.9% in 2024-2025 due to global recovery and policy adjustments (e.g., monetary easing).
Poverty Reduction: Growth elasticity is low, with poverty headcount projected at 32.7% in 2025, lagging pre-pandemic levels despite slow recovery.
Investment Decline: Investment growth stalled, falling to 1.6% year-on-average from 6.8% (2010-2021), dragging down long-term output capacity; oil-rich nations were most affected.
Inflation Persistently High: Inflation peaked at 9.2% in 2022, easing to 5.0% in 2024, but remains above central bank targets, fueled by food prices and currency depreciation.
Debt Vulnerabilities: Public debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 57% in 2022, with 22 countries facing debt distress risks, exacerbated by limited fiscal space and restricted external borrowing.
Low Carbon Transition: Africa’s abundant mineral resources (e.g., cobalt, copper) position it for opportunities in clean energy, but fossil fuel dependency poses risks amid global decarbonization.

Restoring Macroeconomic Stability:
- Strengthen central bank independence and coordinate fiscal-monetary policies to curb inflation.
- Accelerate debt restructuring via the G-20 Common Framework, with creditor coordination and debt relief measures.
- Enhance domestic resource mobilization through tax reforms and reduce fiscal dominance.
Deepening Structural Reforms:
- Promote private investment by improving market competition, infrastructure (e.g., transportation, energy), and reducing regulatory barriers.
- Foster regional integration through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to build value chains and leverage mineral resources.
Leveraging Resource Wealth:
- Maximize resource revenue capture (e.g., taxing extractives effectively) while addressing environmental externalities.
- Prepare for just transition by diversifying economies and investing in human capital, avoiding stranded assets in fossil fuels.
- Utilize domestic gas and renewables for energy access, ensuring fiscal space supports universal electricity goals.

External Risks: Global slowdown, persistently high inflation, and financial tightening constrain African exports and investment.
Internal Risks: Debt unsustainability, climate shocks (e.g., droughts in Horn of Africa), and conflict/security challenges worsen poverty and fiscal pressures.

Clean Energy Demand: Africa can capitalize on its mineral endowments (e.g., cobalt, lithium) for global clean tech supply chains.
Universal Energy Access: Extractive revenues should fund grid and mini-grid expansion, avoiding low-quality alternatives and leveraging regional power pools.