世界银行-_非洲脉搏_第31期_2025年春季_改善非洲治理和为人民服务（英）_100页_3mb

Africa's Pulse Summary

Economic Growth and Outlook

The Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region is expected to see economic activity accelerate, reaching 3.5% in 2025 and further expanding to 4.3% annually from 2026–27. However, growth remains vulnerable to heightened global policy uncertainty, geopolitical shifts, and climate-related shocks. While excluding Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, the rest of the region is projected to grow at 4.6% in 2025, accelerating to 5.7% over 2026–27. Growth per capita (1.1–1.8% in 2025–27) will be insufficient to significantly reduce extreme poverty, which is expected to increase from 43.9% in 2025 to 43.2% in 2027. Key drivers of growth are expected to be private consumption and investment as inflation cools, though government consumption will remain modest due to fiscal constraints.

Inflation Trends

Sub-Saharan Africa’s median inflation rate is projected to decline from 4.5% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026. Most countries have experienced inflation deceleration, though 14 nations still face double-digit rates. Central banks are responding by cutting interest rates where possible, though policy divergence across countries persists due to varying inflation trajectories.

Fiscal and Debt Dynamics

Primary deficits are narrowing, projected to reach 0.2% of GDP in 2025 before shifting to a surplus of 0.1% annually from 2026–27. Interest payments remain a major burden, accounting for 3.3–3.6% of GDP, with 20 of 48 countries spending more on debt service than on healthcare and education combined. Public debt levels have surged, with the average debt-to-GDP ratio reaching 50% in 2024. Debt service burdens are expected to stabilize this year due to restructuring efforts, but challenges remain.

Governance and Service Delivery

Weak institutions hinder effective service delivery and tax collection, contributing to low public trust and informal economy expansion.Governance reforms—improving transparency, accountability, and competition—must prioritize equitable taxation and regulation to create inclusive economic opportunities. Enhancing fiscal transparency, accountability, and reducing corruption are critical for sustainable growth.

Policy Recommendations

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Adopt cautious monetary policies to manage inflation while supporting growth. Governments must prioritize fiscal consolidation to reduce deficits and manage debt sustainability within available fiscal space.

Revenue Mobilization

Broaden tax bases, improve tax administration through digital solutions and progressive taxation, reduce tax exemptions, and eliminate regressive subsidies.

Address Debt Vulnerabilities

Promote transparent debt management, explore innovative financing solutions, and implement liability management operations to reduce debt burdens.

Strengthen Governance and Institutions

Enhance the rule of law, combat corruption, strengthen competition authorities, and ensure equitable service delivery through institutional reforms.

Support Inclusive Growth

Align aid programs with country-specific priorities; leverage regional organizations for integration and trade.

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