世界银行-非洲脉搏：塑造非洲经济未来的问题的分析（英文）-2019.10-108页_12mb

Africa's Pulse Summary - October 2019

Core Content

Africa's Pulse is a report analyzing the key issues shaping the economic future of Africa, with a focus on poverty reduction and the empowerment of African women. It highlights the challenges and opportunities facing the continent in the context of a less supportive global environment and the need for integrated and innovative policy approaches.

Main Views and Key Information

Regional Economic Performance

• Sub-Saharan Africa's Growth: Regional growth in 2019 is projected at 2.6%, slightly lower than the April forecast, and 2.5% in 2018.
• Slow Recovery: The region's economic recovery has been sluggish, with real GDP growth weakening due to reduced investment and net exports.
• Sectoral Trends:
  • Manufacturing and Mining: Moderated growth due to trade tensions and domestic constraints.
  • Services: Lost some momentum, possibly due to spillover effects from slow manufacturing growth.
  • Agriculture: Growth remained subdued due to drought and security concerns.
• Country Performance:
  • Nigeria, South Africa, Angola: The three largest economies showed fragile recoveries, with Nigeria's non-oil sectors underperforming and South Africa facing power cuts and political uncertainty.
  • Non-Resource-Intensive Countries: Showed more robust growth, driven by public infrastructure investment.

External Environment

• Global Growth Slowdown: Continued deceleration due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
• Commodity Prices: Most commodity prices weakened since the second quarter of 2019, with crude oil and base metals expected to remain below 2018 levels.
• Capital Flows: Slowed due to trade tensions and policy uncertainty, with capital outflows from emerging markets increasing in the second half of 2019.
• Monetary Policy: Central banks adopted more accommodative stances, with borrowing costs dropping and negative-yielding bonds rising to $17 trillion.
• Debt Vulnerabilities: Increased, with the share of countries in debt distress or at high risk of external debt distress almost doubling. Debt servicing costs have risen due to high levels of non-concessional debt.

Poverty Reduction

• Poverty Trends:
  • Extreme poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa decreased from 54% in 1990 to 41.4% in 2015, but the number of poor people increased from 278 million to 416.4 million due to population growth.
  • If growth continues at the 1998–2013 pace, the poverty rate would only decline to 23% by 2030.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Put the poor in the driver's seat of poverty reduction.
  • Integrate interventions to overcome constraints and exploit synergies.
  • Leverage technology to create opportunities.
  • Address gender inequalities.
  • Accelerate the fertility transition.
  • Improve the food system on and off the farm.
  • Address risk and conflict.
  • Provide more and better public finance.

Empowering African Women

• Women's Economic Role:
  • Women are more likely than men to be entrepreneurs in Sub-Saharan Africa.
  • They contribute significantly to agricultural labor but face large earnings gaps.
  • Women farmers produce 33% less per hectare than men, and female entrepreneurs earn 34% less profit.
• Policy Pathways:
  1. Building Skills: Beyond traditional training, including gender-sensitive agricultural extension and socioemotional skills for women entrepreneurs.
  2. Alleviating Financial Constraints: Through innovative solutions like psychometric tests and mobile money loans.
  3. Securing Land Rights: Ensuring women have legal rights to land and inheritance.
  4. Connecting to Labor: Seasonal financing to hire farm labor.
  5. Addressing Social Norms: Changing norms that restrict women's economic opportunities.
  6. Supporting the Next Generation: Helping girls navigate adolescence to ensure future opportunities.

Risks and Outlook

• Downside Risks: Slower global growth, sharper drops in commodity prices, and poor implementation of policy reforms.
• Future Outlook:
  • Regional growth is expected to pick up in 2020 with stronger domestic demand.
  • Non-resource-intensive countries are expected to show stronger growth, offsetting modest expansion in resource-intensive countries.
  • Growth in the three largest economies (Nigeria, South Africa, Angola) is expected to remain low without structural reforms.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive and integrated policy approaches to address the complex challenges facing Sub-Saharan Africa. It highlights the critical role of women in economic growth and calls for policies that empower them, reduce gender gaps, and improve economic resilience. The report also underscores the importance of leveraging technology and public finance to support poverty reduction and inclusive growth.