2016年-世界发展银行全球_South_East_Europe_No_9_Spring_2016___Rebalancing_for_Stronger_Growth_100页_1mb

Summary of the Regular Economic Report for South East Europe (SEE6) - Spring 2016

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of economic developments, prospects, and policy reforms in six South East European countries (SEE6): Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. It highlights the region's economic recovery and the ongoing efforts to rebalance growth towards more sustainable sources.

Main Views

1. Economic Recovery and Growth

• The SEE6 region experienced a rebound in economic growth, reaching 2.1% in 2015, significantly higher than the 0.3% in 2014.
• Growth in 2015 was driven primarily by investment revival, with domestic and foreign investment being the main contributors in Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Albania.
• Net exports also contributed positively to growth, especially in Albania, where they were the strongest driver.
• The region's growth is expected to continue, with projections of 3% by 2017, supported by domestic demand recovery and ongoing structural reforms.

2. Rebalancing of Economic Growth

• The region is shifting from a consumption-driven model to one that is more export and investment-oriented.
• Consumption's share in GDP declined by about 6 percentage points, while exports increased by 10 percentage points between 2007 and 2015.
• This rebalancing is crucial for long-term growth sustainability, as it reduces reliance on volatile external financing and consumption.

3. Poverty Reduction and Employment

• Higher employment and lower inflation contributed to a resumption of poverty reduction in 2015.
• In Albania, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, the average estimated poverty rate declined by 2% between 2013 and 2015, with about 140,000 people escaping poverty.
• However, unemployment remains high, averaging 21.5% in the region, and is still below pre-crisis levels.
• Youth unemployment is generally double that of the working-age population, and long-term unemployment is significant, especially in FYR Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

4. Fiscal and Monetary Policies

• Fiscal deficits continued to narrow in all SEE6 countries except Montenegro, but public debt-to-GDP ratios remained high.
• Fiscal consolidation efforts focused on reducing public sector spending and improving revenue collection.
• Public wages and social spending remain high, contributing to fiscal pressures.
• Monetary policy remained accommodative, with interest rates at historical lows, supporting economic growth and credit expansion.

5. Challenges and Risks

• Downside risks include potential increases in external volatility, which could impact financing availability.
• Political dynamics in 2016, particularly during elections, could introduce new risks.
• Structural issues such as rigid labor markets, high labor costs, and low productivity continue to hinder sustainable growth.
• Productivity has been declining since 2008, and improving it is essential for boosting potential growth.

Key Information

Investment Revival

• Investment revived significantly in 2015, especially in Serbia, Kosovo, and Albania.
• Regulatory reforms, cheaper credit, and increased FDI supported investment growth.
• In FYR Macedonia, investment contributed to a shift in growth sources, though its contribution fell to zero in 2015 due to domestic uncertainty.

Employment and Poverty

• Job creation in the private sector was supported by economic growth and labor market reforms.
• Despite some progress, employment levels are still below pre-crisis levels.
• Low inflation helped improve the purchasing power of the poorest households, but poverty reduction remains a challenge due to high unemployment and limited fiscal space.

Fiscal and Debt Management

• Fiscal consolidation was most effective in Albania and Serbia.
• Public debt-to-GDP ratios are still high, with some countries experiencing a significant rise in 2015.
• External debt ratios increased, and the share of dollar-denominated debt is below most Europe and Central Asia countries.
• NPLs (Non-Performing Loans) remain high, averaging 14.7% of total loans, and continue to burden bank balance sheets.

Policy Reforms and Structural Challenges

• Structural reforms are ongoing and include labor market reforms, business climate improvements, and public investment management.
• The report emphasizes the need for a broad-based agenda to reduce structural rigidities and improve productivity.
• The five pillars of reform include:
  • Eliminating disincentives and barriers to formal employment
  • Improving the business climate and governance
  • Reducing the size of government while improving service delivery
  • Deepening trade and financial integration
  • Ensuring sustainable natural resource use

Outlook and Risks

• The near-term outlook is positive, with growth expected to rise to 3% by 2017.
• However, risks include external volatility, potential slowdown in major export markets (especially the EU), and global oil price movements.
• Political instability and domestic policy environments may also affect the sustainability of the recovery.

Key Economic Indicators (SEE6)

Conclusion

The SEE6 region is on a path of economic recovery and rebalancing, with investment and exports playing a more prominent role in growth. However, structural challenges, high public debt, and persistent unemployment remain key obstacles. Sustaining this growth will require continued policy reforms, improved productivity, and a focus on long-term economic stability.