2023-10-21-世界银行-_非洲脉搏_第28期_2023年10月_通过更好的工作为人民带来增长（英）-2023.10-130页_130页_3mb

Africa’s Pulse Summary

Overview

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) experienced a slow economic recovery in 2023, with growth slowing to 2.5%, driven by global uncertainty and domestic challenges. While the region has seen some progress in poverty reduction, job creation remains inadequate, failing to keep pace with population growth. Key issues include political instability, high debt burdens, and weak institutions. The report emphasizes the need for inclusive growth strategies to leverage demographic trends and promote better jobs.

Growth and Poverty

• Economic growth slowed in 2023, with the region’s GDP contracting at 0.1% annually on average from 2015-2025. Poverty remains high, with 462 million people living below $2.15 a day by 2023, despite slight improvements since the COVID-19 peak.
• Growth elasticity of poverty is low, with only 0.4% reduction in poverty per 1% GDP growth, compared to other regions. African countries need higher growth quality to achieve shared prosperity.

Global and Domestic Environment

• Global Environment: Tightening global financial conditions and persistently high inflation (e.g., median inflation in SSA at 7.3% in 2023) weigh on exports and investment. Geoeconomic tensions and supply chain disruptions further constrain growth.
• Domestic Environment: SSA faces severe challenges, including high debt distress (55% of countries at high risk), conflict and violence, weak institutional quality, and infrastructure deficits. Policies are constrained by fiscal and monetary tightening, leading to reduced public spending and higher inflation.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth Outlook: Recovery is expected to bottom out in 2023 and pick up to 3.7% in 2024-2025. Non-resource-rich countries show stronger growth, while resource-dependent economies lag. However, risks include external shocks, climate events, and policy missteps.
• Risks: Debt vulnerabilities are escalating due to high financing costs and weak external positions. Geoeconomic fragmentation could disrupt trade and investment, while climate shocks exacerbate poverty in vulnerable regions.

Policy Responses

• Prioritize fiscal consolidation and debt management to create fiscal space, while coordinating monetary and fiscal policies to control inflation.
• Invest in human capital, including education, health, and vocational training, to address skill mismatches and promote inclusive growth.
• Strengthen institutions and competition policies to improve market access, reduce resource misallocation, and attract foreign investment.
• Leverage regional integration efforts like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to boost trade, diversify exports, and create jobs.
• Targeted interventions for youth, women, and fragile contexts are essential to ensure job creation aligns with demographic trends.

For a full analysis, refer to the complete report.