20180221-法国巴黎银行-Morning_Meeting_Notes_9页_712kb

Summary of EM STRATEGY | TURKEY DAILY - 21 February 2018

Core Content

This document is a morning meeting note from BNP Paribas' Emerging Markets Strategy team, focusing on Turkey. It provides insights into the real estate sector, foreign exchange market, government and corporate bonds, and other financial instruments, along with legal disclaimers and disclosures relevant to different jurisdictions.

Main Points on the Real Estate Sector

• Home Sales Trends:

  • Home sales in Turkey showed a strong recovery from the last quarter of 2016, with a 10% year-over-year (y/y) increase in the first three quarters of 2017.
  • However, this momentum declined in Q4 2017 by 6.7% y/y, signaling a weakening in the real estate sector.

• Mortgage Rates and Loan Growth:

  • The recovery was primarily driven by lower mortgage interest rates, which dropped to 11% in Q1 2017.
  • Mortgage loan growth reached 25% y/y in that period, with state banks being the main contributors, as their growth exceeded 50% y/y.
  • Private banks showed much slower growth, around 6–7% y/y.

• Impact on Prices:

  • The decline in mortgage rates led to an increase in mortgage loan growth, which in turn boosted home sales.
  • However, as interest rates increased in the second half of 2017, home sales declined, and unit prices collapsed in CPI-adjusted terms.
  • The CPI-adjusted unit price index fell by 33.7% y/y in November 2017, indicating a significant drop in real estate value.

• Sector Outlook:

  • The real estate sector is likely to face further headwinds unless there is a meaningful decline in mortgage rates.
  • Although only one-third of real estate sales are through mortgage loans, cash sales are closely correlated with mortgaged sales.

Key Financial Instruments and Market Data

• Foreign Exchange Market (FX):

  • USDTRY: 3.8074, with a daily change of 1.4% and weekly change of 0.6%.
  • EURTRY: 4.6940, with a daily change of 0.7% and weekly change of -0.1%.
  • BASKET: 4.2504, with daily change of 1.0% and weekly change of 0.2%.

• Forward Implied and XCCY Swap Rates:

  • 1m: 12.34, with daily change of 0.04% and weekly change of 0.02%.
  • 3m: 12.55, with daily change of 0.04% and weekly change of -0.04%.
  • 6m: 12.84, with daily change of 0.10% and weekly change of -0.06%.
  • 1Y: 13.49, with daily change of 0.13% and weekly change of -0.17%.
  • 2Y: 13.33, with daily change of 0.12% and weekly change of -0.16%.

• ATM Volatility Curves:

  • 1m: 11.43, with daily change of 0.43% and weekly change of -0.51%.
  • 3m: 12.04, with daily change of 0.00% and weekly change of -0.58%.
  • 1Y: 13.87, with daily change of 0.03% and weekly change of -0.34%.

• Government Bonds Yield Curve:

  • 2Y: 13.04, with a daily change of 0.04% and weekly change of -0.35%.
  • 5Y: 12.44, with a daily change of 0.05% and weekly change of -0.15%.
  • 10Y: 11.94, with a daily change of 0.05% and weekly change of -0.24%.
  • 17.02.2045: 101.6, with a yield of 6.48% and z-spread of 351.6.

• CPI Linkers:

  • 2Y: 9.77, with a daily change of -0.05% and weekly change of -0.40%.
  • 5Y: 9.28, with a daily change of -0.05% and weekly change of -0.25%.
  • 10Y: 8.90, with a daily change of 0.07% and weekly change of -0.23%.

• Daily REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate):

  • The REER is shown in a chart, indicating the relative value of the Turkish lira against a basket of currencies.

• CBRT Average Repo Funding Rate:

  • The repo rate is also depicted in a chart, showing the central bank's short-term interest rate.

Key Contacts for Emerging Markets Strategy

Legal and Regulatory Disclaimers

• This document is non-independent research and is intended for Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties under MiFID II.
• It is not investment research and is not subject to the independence requirements of investment research.
• It may include Research content, which is only available to those who have signed up to a BNPP Global Markets Research package.
• The information and opinions are based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
• No liability is accepted for any loss or damage arising from the use of this document.
• BNPP may have conflicts of interest due to its involvement in investment banking, underwriting, or advisory services.
• Performance data may be based on back-testing and is not indicative of future results.
• Options, ETFs, and convertible securities are complex instruments and may not be suitable for all investors.
• The document is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any financial instruments.
• Transactions must be executed through BNPPSC for U.S. persons, and the document is subject to legal restrictions in various jurisdictions.

Jurisdictional Notes

• United States:

  • The document contains important disclosures regarding options, ETFs, and convertible securities.
  • It is not intended for distribution to U.S. persons unless through BNPPSC.
  • Certain securities may be unregistered under U.S. law and are only available to QIBs or non-U.S. persons.

• United Kingdom:

  • The document is communicated by BNPP London Branch, which is authorised and supervised by the ECB, ACPR, and FCA.
  • It is registered in England and Wales under number FC13447.

• France:

  • The report is produced and distributed by BNPP SA and BNPP Arbitrage.
  • BNPP SA is authorized and supervised by the ECB and ACPR.
  • BNPP Arbitrage is an unlimited liability company and is regulated by ACPR and AMF.

• Germany:

  • The report is distributed by BNPP S.A. Niederlassung Deutschland, a branch of BNPP S.A..
  • It is authorized and supervised by the ECB, ACPR, and BaFin.

Conclusion

The document outlines the real estate sector's performance in Turkey, highlighting the impact of mortgage interest rates on home sales and price trends. It also provides key market data on FX, bonds, and volatility. The legal disclaimers emphasize the non-independent nature of the research, the potential for conflicts of interest, and the importance of professional advice before making investment decisions.