20151211-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_2015.12.11_21页_720kb

Wheat Outlook Summary (Dec. 11, 2015)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) released the Wheat Outlook for the 2015/16 marketing year, highlighting key trends in global and U.S. wheat production, trade, and stocks.

Global Wheat Outlook

• World Wheat Production: Increased by 1.9 million tons to 734.9 million tons, with record-high supplies.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to rise to 229.9 million tons, up 2.6 million tons from the previous year, due to higher supplies and slightly lower use.
• Global Trade: Expected to increase by 1.4 million tons to 162.3 million tons, surpassing last year's trade levels and nearing the previous all-time record.
• EU Production: Increased by 0.4 million tons to 157.7 million tons, but feed use is projected lower due to competition from corn and barley.
• Argentina: Exports increased by 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million tons, with a new government removing export taxes and currency controls, potentially boosting competitiveness.
• Ukraine: Exports increased by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, continuing a record export trend.
• Paraguay and Moldova: Exports increased by 0.2 million tons each, while the EU's exports decreased by 1.0 million tons due to export license delays and a stronger euro.

U.S. Wheat Outlook

• Production: Estimated at 1,370 million bushels, unchanged from November, but down 7 million bushels from 2014.

• Exports: Projected at 800 million bushels, unchanged from November, and the lowest since 1971/72.

• Ending Stocks: Projected at 911 million bushels, up 158 million bushels from the previous marketing year, indicating historically high levels.

• Class-Specific Projections:

  • Hard Red Winter (HRW): Production at 827 million bushels, up 88 million bushels from last year; exports increased by 10 million bushels to 225 million.
  • Hard Red Spring (HRS): Production at 564 million bushels, up nearly 9 million bushels from last year; exports decreased by 10 million bushels to 265 million.
  • Soft Red Winter (SRW): Production at 359 million bushels, down 95 million bushels from last year.
  • White Winter Wheat: Production at 184 million bushels, up 0.2 million bushels from last year.
  • Durum: Production at 82 million bushels, up 28 million bushels from last year, with increased production in California and Arizona.

• Prices: All-wheat prices remain stable at $4.80 to $5.20 per bushel, with the mid-point at $5.00. Domestic prices remain relatively high, affecting U.S. competitiveness in export markets.

Trade and Classification Updates

• New Wheat Trade Codes: The U.S. Census Bureau introduced new codes for wheat trade data, effective in the near future. These codes are available on the Census Bureau website.
• Trade Adjustments: Higher projected supplies and increased sales to Asia boosted Canadian and Ukrainian exports. Indonesia and Thailand also increased wheat imports, mainly for feed and aquaculture.

Key Information

• Supply and Demand Trends: Global wheat supplies are record high, leading to increased ending stocks and lower prices. The U.S. is experiencing a slow export pace, with domestic prices inhibiting competitiveness.
• Weather Impact: The Pacific Northwest faced delayed wheat emergence and poor crop conditions due to drought and insufficient rainfall, affecting production ratings.
• Market Dynamics: The EU is shifting feeding away from wheat due to high-quality but less competitive prices compared to corn and barley. Argentina's new government is expected to enhance its export potential.
• Data Sources: The ERS provides detailed supply and use data, including a table of U.S. wheat supply and disappearance for the 2015/16 marketing year.

Main Points

• Global Production: Up 1.9 million tons to 734.9 million tons.
• Global Trade: Increased by 1.4 million tons to 162.3 million tons.
• U.S. Exports: Remain at 800 million bushels, the lowest since 1971/72.
• U.S. Ending Stocks: Projected at 911 million bushels, the highest since 2009/10.
• Class-Specific Trends:
  • HRW: Production up 88 million bushels, exports up 10 million bushels.
  • HRS: Production up 9 million bushels, exports down 10 million bushels.
  • SRW: Production down 95 million bushels.
  • White Wheat: Ending stocks down 18 million bushels.
  • Durum: Production up 28 million bushels, ending stocks up 4 million bushels.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact Information:
  • Jennifer Bond (Domestic): (202) 694-5326, jkbond@ers.usda.gov
  • Olga Liefert (International): (202) 694-5155, oliefert@ers.usda.gov
  • Beverly Payton (Web Publishing): (202) 694-5165, bpayton@ers.usda.gov
• Subscription: Available via ERS email notification service or by contacting the USDA Order Desk.
• Data Access: Wheat Monthly Tables and Chart Gallery are available on the ERS website.
• Related Websites: Includes links to the Wheat Outlook, Grain Circular, and other relevant reports.

Conclusion

The 2015/16 wheat outlook reflects record production and high ending stocks globally, with the U.S. maintaining a stable export forecast despite challenges in competitiveness. The EU and Argentina are notable for their shifts in trade and policy, which could influence future market dynamics.