20160114-USDA-Wheat_Outlook_January_2016_22页_1mb

报告摘要

Wheat Outlook Summary (WHS-16a, January 14, 2016)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of U.S. and global wheat supply, use, and stocks for the 2015/16 marketing year, along with projections for the 2016/17 year. It includes data on production, imports, exports, and domestic use, and highlights key trends in wheat markets and trade.

U.S. Domestic Outlook

Ending Stocks

U.S. ending stocks for the 2015/16 marketing year are raised to 941 million bushels, an increase of 30 million bushels from the previous month.
Domestic use is reduced by 36 million bushels, due to lower seed and feed/residual use.
Carryin and imports are also reduced, trimming U.S. supplies by 6 million bushels.

Winter Wheat

Winter wheat area seeded in 2015 is 93% of the 2014 area, with a total of 36.6 million acres.
Winter wheat production for 2015 is estimated at 1,370 million bushels, 7 million bushels less than 2014.
Yield is forecast at 42.5 bushels per acre, 0.1 bushels per acre lower than the previous year.
Planted and harvested areas for winter wheat are down compared to 2014.

Winter Wheat by Class

Hard red winter (HRW) production is forecast at 827 million bushels, 88 million bushels higher than 2014, with planted and harvested areas at 29 million and 23 million acres, respectively.
Soft red winter (SRW) production is forecast at 359 million bushels, 95 million bushels lower than 2014, due to lower harvested area and yield.
White winter wheat production is forecast at 184 million bushels, 0.2 million bushels higher than 2014.

Spring Wheat

Hard red spring (HRS) production is forecast at 564 million bushels, 9 million bushels higher than 2014.
White spring wheat production is estimated at 34.9 million bushels, 4.5 million bushels lower than 2014.

Durum Wheat

Durum wheat production for 2015 is forecast at 82 million bushels, 28 million bushels higher than 2014.
Desert durum production in California and Arizona is forecast at 20.3 million bushels, nearly double the 2014 crop.

International Outlook

Global Production

World wheat production for 2015/16 is projected at 735.4 million tons, up 0.5 million tons from the previous month.
Russia production is up 0.5 million tons to 61.0 million tons.
Pakistan production is up 0.5 million tons to 25.5 million tons.
European Union (EU) production is projected slightly up by 0.3 million tons to 158.0 million tons.
China production is revised up by 0.2 million tons to 130.2 million tons.
Uruguay production is sharply reduced by 0.7 million tons (41%) to 1.0 million tons due to heavy rains during harvest.
Brazil production is also projected lower by 0.4 million tons to 5.6 million tons.

Global Stocks

Global ending stocks for 2015/16 are projected to hit a record high of 206.4 million tons.
U.S. ending stocks are up 189 million bushels from the previous year.
Foreign ending stocks are projected higher due to increased production and consumption adjustments.

Trade

World wheat trade is marginally increased to 162.4 million tons.
U.S. exports remain unchanged at 800 million bushels.
U.S. imports are slightly reduced by 5 million bushels.
Uruguay and Brazil are expected to see reduced exports due to lower production and increased competition for feed-quality wheat.
Turkmenistan and Pakistan are projected to increase exports.

Price Outlook

All-wheat price range for the 2015/16 marketing year is narrowed to $4.90 to $5.10 per bushel, with the midpoint at $5.00 per bushel.
Wheat-to-corn price ratios indicate a premium for wheat, reducing its use as a feed input.
Prices by class are provided in the report, with detailed data on HRW, HRS, SRW, SWW, and Durum.

Key Updates and Changes

New wheat grain codes for trade data have been announced by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Data revisions for 2012–2014 wheat trade are available on the USDA website.
Wheat Outlook data is accessible via the USDA's Wheat Monthly Tables and Wheat Chart Gallery.

Additional Information

Dr. Gary Vocke, the ERS wheat program coordinator, has retired after 35 years of service.
Subscription options for ERS newsletters and data updates are available via the USDA website.
Contact information for domestic and international wheat outlook is provided.

Summary of Key Trends

U.S. ending stocks have increased due to higher beginning stocks, production, and lower domestic use.
Global stocks are at a record high, driven by increased production in key countries like Pakistan, EU, and China.
Winter wheat planted area is down year-to-year, but production for HRW is up due to higher yields and harvested area.
Feed and residual use is reduced due to lower wheat-to-corn price ratios.
U.S. exports remain low due to a strong dollar and global supply abundance.
Trade data and wheat codes have been updated for better tracking and reporting.