20150814-USDA-USDA_Wheat_Outlook（2015-8-14）_22页_380kb

Economic Research Service Wheat Outlook Summary - August 14, 2015

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) released the Wheat Outlook for the 2015/16 marketing year, highlighting changes in U.S. and global wheat production, trade, and utilization. The report outlines the implications of these changes on market prices, stocks, and international competitiveness.

Main Points

• U.S. Wheat Outlook:

  • Projected Ending Stocks: Increased by 8 million bushels from July, reaching 850 million bushels, the highest since 2010/11.
  • Exports: Reduced by 25 million bushels to 925 million due to strong competition and slow sales.
  • Prices: The season-average farm price range is projected at $4.65 to $5.55 per bushel, a decrease of 10 to 20 cents from the July range.
  • Production: Overall U.S. production is lower than the previous year, with hard red winter (HRW), soft red winter (SRW), and white wheat all showing declines, while hard red spring (HRS) production is up due to record yields in North Dakota.
  • Imports: Reduced by 5 million bushels due to a larger U.S. HRS crop and lower Canadian supplies.

• Global Wheat Outlook:

  • Production: A record-high global wheat crop of 726.5 million tons is expected, driven by increases in FSU-12 and Turkey, which offset reductions in Canada, Argentina, and U.S..
  • Trade: Global wheat trade is projected to be 1.1 million tons lower than the previous month, primarily due to lower Iranian imports.
  • Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks are projected to increase by 1.7 million tons to 221.5 million tons, the highest on record, with a stock-to-use ratio of 31.0%.

• International Wheat Outlook:

  • Export Adjustments: Exports from Russia and Ukraine are expected to increase due to larger crops and devalued currencies, while Canada and Argentina face reductions.
  • Country-Specific Changes:
    • Russia: Production up by 3.0 million tons to 60.0 million, with winter wheat yields expected to be 12% lower than last year.
    • Ukraine: Production up by 1.5 million tons to 25.5 million, with high yields and good vegetation health.
    • Kazakhstan: Production up by 0.5 million tons to 14.0 million, but freeze damage risks remain due to delayed planting.
    • Turkey: Production up by 1.0 million tons to 19.5 million, with record yields but low grain quality.
    • Morocco: Production up by 0.2 million tons to 8.0 million, with record yields and increased imports.
    • Canada: Production down by 1.0 million tons to 26.5 million due to dry conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
    • EU: Production virtually unchanged at 147.8 million tons, with higher feed use leading to lower stocks.
    • Iran: Imports reduced due to new import duties, and stocks are expected to decline.
    • India: Imposed a 10% wheat import duty, leading to a reduction in wheat imports.

Key Information

• Domestic Utilization:

  • Total Use: Projected to be up 156 million bushels from the previous year, but down 25 million bushels from July.
  • Food Use: Unchanged from July at 967 million bushels.
  • Feed and Residual Use: Up slightly to 200 million bushels.
  • Imports: Reduced by 5 million bushels to 125 million due to lower Canadian supplies.
  • Exports: Reduced by 25 million bushels to 925 million due to low world prices and strong competition.

• Class-Specific Production:

  • HRW: Production down 18 million bushels from July, but up 60 million from 2014.
  • HRS: Production up 20 million bushels from 2014, with record yields in North Dakota.
  • SRW: Production down 66 million bushels from 2014 due to lower yields and harvested area.
  • White Wheat: Production up 9 million bushels from 2014, with HWW and SWW showing some increase.
  • Durum Wheat: Production up 24 million bushels from 2014, with desert durum in California and Arizona at 19.5 million bushels.

• New Trade Codes:

  • The U.S. Census Bureau introduced new wheat grain codes for trade data, which will be used in the near future.
  • Trade data for 2012-14 has been revised, and 2014/15 data will be posted soon.

Summary of Changes

Outlook Highlights

• U.S. Export Prospects: Reduced due to strong competition and low world prices.
• Global Feed Use: Increased due to higher wheat supplies and lower corn production.
• Stocks and Prices: Ending stocks are expected to rise globally, while prices are projected to be lower than the previous month.

Contacts and Resources

• Contact Information:

  • Gary Vocke (Domestic): (202) 694-5285, gvocke@ers.usda.gov
  • Olga Liefert (International): (202) 694-5155, oliefert@ers.usda.gov
  • Beverly Payton (Web Publishing): (202) 694-5165, bpayton@ers.usda.gov

• Subscription Information:

  • Subscribe to ERS e-mail notifications via ERS e-newsletters.
  • Printed Copies: Available from the USDA Order Desk at 1-800-363-2068.

• Data and Publications:

  • Wheat Monthly Tables: Wheat Outlook
  • Wheat Chart Gallery: Wheat Chart Gallery
  • Related Websites:
    • Wheat Outlook
    • Grain Circular
    • Wheat Topic

Conclusion

The 2015/16 wheat outlook indicates increased global production, higher global stocks, and reduced trade due to strong competition and policy changes. While U.S. wheat production is mixed, with HRS showing growth and other classes declining, U.S. exports are expected to be lower than the previous year. Global wheat prices are projected to be lower, and the stock-to-use ratio is expected to be the highest on record. The report also highlights the impact of trade policies on international wheat trade and the importance of data revisions for accurate market analysis.