2025-06-03-Jefferies-住房金融_2025财年贷款发放增长放缓_14页_887kb

报告摘要

Housing loan disbursement growth slowed to approximately 11% YoY in FY25, down from 13% in FY24, with private banks curbing disbursements to avoid NIM pressure from rate repricing, while PSU banks saw healthy growth.
Premium/HIG loan segments performed better, with LIG/MIG segments facing declines due to affordability challenges and income constraints.
Affordable HFCs (AHFCs) like Home First and India Shelter showed robust growth, capturing more share in the affordable housing sector, while bond-funded HFCs like LICHF face NIM pressure from rate cuts.
PSU banks led in aggressive rate cuts (up to 50 bps), boosting demand but squeezing margins at HFCs with high bond-linked liabilities; AHFCs benefit more due to MCLR-linked funding.
Jefferies recommends AHFCs over large HFCs, citing strong growth in entities like Home First and Can Fin (preferred over LICHF), with aptus as a buy due to fixed-rate loan advantages.
Growth is expected to stabilize at 11.6% in FY26 and rise in FY27, supported by continued rate cuts and consumer demand pick-up.

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