2025-06-03-Jefferies-佩农（PNN）_财年最新情况及符合市场预期的指引_7页_101kb

Pennon FY24/25 Performance Update & Guidance

Key Financial Results:

• Revenue for FY24/25 reached £1bn, a 15% YoY increase, in line with consensus.
• EBITDA of £336m met guidance, slightly below consensus by 3%.
• Dividend per share (DPS) of 31.57p aligns with the CPIH growth policy (+3.4%).
• Net debt stands at £3.9bn, with a gearing level of 61.8%, slight improvement from the prior half-year's 65%.

Guidance for FY25/26:

• Expected EBITDA increase of about 67m (approx. 2/3rds), with a projected full-year profit before tax (PBT) of £140m, matching the consensus.
• Projected Return on Equity (RoRE) to remain around 7% (level 8.3x Market Cap).
• Factors driving performance include regulated water revenue growth, higher depreciation due to investment, and increased interest costs reflecting the capex program.
• Capital expenditure guidance is £710-740m, front-loaded for early benefits. Earnings Before Assessment (EPA) aims for a 2-star rating for 2024, with a target of 4-star by 2028.

Market Context & Catalyst:

• The upcoming Cunliffe Review draft is highlighted as a potential material catalyst for the sector.
• Focus areas include the mandated 180-240m revenue growth for regulated water groups and environmental concerns, specifically regarding storm overflows (ODI penalties recorded a reward of £25m in FY24/25).

Valuation:

• Current share price is 508.50p.
• Analyst price target (PT) is 600p (+18% from current price).
• Trading range mentioned is 543p to 371p.
• Various valuation methodologies used, including DCF and EV/EBITDA.
• The Upside Target (UT) works in the low range for the stock.

Analyst Recommendation:

• Rating: BUY, with expectations of 15%+ total return within 12 months.
• The price target reflects a cautious yet positive outlook based on consensus views.

Risks:

• Regulatory scrutiny on environmental impact.
• Rising bond yields.
• M&A activity in the sector impacting valuations.