2023-07-11-IEA-2023年石油报告_127页_6mb

Oil Market Analysis: Outlook to 2028

Overview

The global oil market is undergoing a significant transformation due to the energy transition and geopolitical factors. Demand for oil from combustible fossil fuels is expected to peak by 2028 at approximately 81.7 million barrels per day (mb/d), with total oil demand reaching 105.7 mb/d. Supply growth is slower than demand in some regions, driven by increased investment in non-OPEC+ countries and maintenance of spare capacity in OPEC+. This shift contributes to a realignment of trade flows toward Asia.

Demand Dynamics

• Peak Combustible Demand: Petroleum-based liquid fuels demand will peak in 2028, driven primarily by petrochemicals and air travel, though transport fuels face declines due to electrification and efficiency.
• Regional Contributions: Asia (especially China and India) and Africa are key growth drivers. Chinese demand is front-loaded, while Indian growth is projected to be robust.
• Dynamics: Overall oil demand is slowing, with key factors being electric vehicle adoption, efficiency improvements, and policy shifts. Demand contractions are expected in North America and Europe.
• Reserves: Annual growth decelerates by mid-century as oil use declines, driven by energy transition.

Supply Adjustments

• Non-OPEC+ Dominance: The US, Canada, and Brazil are major sources of supply growth, adding significant light tight oil production. OPEC+ maintains approximately 3.8 mb/d of spare capacity.
• Investment Trends: Global upstream investment is increasing, with a focus on lower-carbon projects to align with decarbonization goals, though breakeven prices have risen.
• Economic Factors: Energy prices, sanctions, and market volatility affect supply growth in regions like Russia and Africa.

Refining Industry

• Capacity Expansion: Global refining capacity is set to increase by 4.4 mb/d to 2028, with East of Suez (Asia) leading the growth due to new refineries and petrochemical integration.
• Shifts in Yields: Refiners must adapt to declining gasoline demand by increasing middle distillate and petrochemical feedstock production, reflecting regional demand changes.
• Challenges: China and India are focal points for capacity building, but closures risk affecting market liquidity, particularly under stricter environmental policies.

Trade and Energy Transition

• Geopolitical Shift: Trade flows are moving toward Asia, with record shipments from the Americas and adjustments in middle distillate markets due to supply surpluses and demand gaps.
• Electrification Impact: EVs are significantly reducing gasoline demand, exacerbating imbalances in refined product markets and pressuring margins.
• Biofuels and Petrochemicals: Biofuels and petrochemical feedstocks are key growth areas, supported by blending mandates.

Key Risks

• Market uncertainties from geopolitical tensions, energy prices, and policy shifts could alter demand and supply dynamics.
• Investment challenges in refining capacity expansions and the energy security debate affect global oil market stability.

Source: IEA Oil 2023, revised June 2023.