2024-12-22-IEA-煤炭2024—分析和预测至2027_127页_5mb

Coal 2024: Analysis and Forecast to 2027

Executive Summary

Coal demand reached an all-time high of 8.77 billion tonnes (Bt) in 2024, growing by 1%, though at a considerably slower pace than previous years. After experiencing a sharp decline during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, global coal production rebounded and hit a record high in 2024, surpassing 9 billion tonnes for the first time. Weather fluctuations and the rapid expansion of renewable energy sources have introduced significant uncertainties into short-term demand forecasts.

China and India are expected to remain the primary drivers of global coal demand growth through 2027, with India set to see the highest percentage increase. Despite ongoing electrification efforts in developed economies, coal consumption in these regions is projected to continue shrinking, though at a slower rate. By 2027, global coal demand is expected to reach approximately 8.87 billion tonnes.

International coal trade is forecast to reach an all-time high in 2024 at 1.55 billion tonnes, though it will decline through 2027. Trade flows are shifting toward Asia, with Indonesia and Australia becoming key exporters. Russian coal exports face significant headwinds due to Western sanctions and market challenges.

Coal prices in 2024 remained elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels but lower than those seen during the energy crisis of 2022. Profitability for coal producers has decreased from peak crisis levels, particularly in the thermal coal segment.

Demand

Global coal demand increased by 1% in 2024, reaching a record 8.77 billion tonnes. Growth in 2027 is expected to slow to 0.4%, with demand plateauing around 8.87 billion tonnes.

Key Demand Drivers:

1. China: Consumption rose by 1% to 4.94 billion tonnes, with the power sector being the main driver. Despite policy efforts to diversify energy sources, coal continues to dominate China's electricity generation.
2. India: Demand surged by 6.3%, reaching 1.32 billion tonnes, driven by power generation and industrial growth.
3. European Union and United States: Coal consumption declined by 12% and 5%, respectively, though at a slower pace than previous years.

Renewable Energy Impact:

• Weather-induced fluctuations have a massive impact on coal demand in China, with the potential for short-term variations of up to 282 million tonnes.
• Despite rapid renewable growth, coal remains a critical backup for electricity generation due to its ability to handle demand spikes and weather-related renewable outages.

Supply

Global coal production reached a new record high in 2024, surpassing 9 billion tonnes. Growth in 2027 is expected to slow as inventories remain abundant and demand pressures ease.

Key Supply Highlights:

• China: Production increased by 1% to 4.65 billion tonnes amid safety campaign constraints.
• India: Output expanded significantly, driven by domestic demand and government incentives.
• Indonesia: Production grew by about 7%, but prices remain low, affecting profitability.

Australia remains the largest exporter of metallurgical coal, but overall thermal coal exports are expected to decline due to market shifts.

Trade

International coal trade reached an all-time high of 1.55 billion tonnes in 2024, comprising predominantly thermal coal. Although thermal coal trade is projected to increase further in the short term, it will decline through 2027 due to substituting energy sources and policy shifts.

Trade Trends:

• Asia-Pacific: Remains the dominant market for coal imports, accounting for over 84% of global coal trade.
• Russia: Faces significant challenges due to Western sanctions, limiting its market access and export volumes.

Prices and Costs

Coal prices in 2024 remained significantly higher than pre-pandemic averages, though more stable than during the energy crisis. Profitability decreased compared to 2022 levels, especially for thermal coal exporters.

Key Price Developments:

• Brent crude oil prices continued to impact coal competitiveness, though correlations between energy commodities weakened in 2024.
• Russian coal exports command discounts due to sanctions, limiting their appeal despite increased domestic production.

Update on Investment and Coal Abatement

The project pipeline for new export-oriented mines decreased by 31 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) in 2024, reflecting reduced investor confidence. Metallurgical coal projects are perceived as more attractive than thermal coal due to their role in climate-sensitive industries like steel production.

Key Investment Trends:

• Australia continues to lead new coal mining projects focused on metallurgical coal.
• Major mergers and acquisitions have reshaped the industry, with diversified companies divesting from thermal coal but acquiring metallurgical assets.
• Carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) technologies remain underdeveloped, limiting progress in abated coal usage.

Conclusion

While global coal demand has peaked and will decline modestly through 2027, it is unlikely to see rapid phase-outs in the medium term. India’s continued growth trajectory and China’s massive scale secure coal’s position as a critical global energy source. However, the shift toward renewables and climate policies will gradually reduce coal’s share in electricity generation worldwide.

Despite pressure from decarbonization efforts, coal remains politically and economically significant in many regions due to energy security concerns and the pace of energy transition.

*Summary based on the first 92 pages of the provided IEA report.*