2023年石油报告（英）-127页_6mb

报告摘要

The 2023 IEA Oil Report highlights several key points regarding the global oil market through 2028:

World oil demand is projected to peak at 105.7 mb/d by 2028, up from 100.7 mb/d in 2022.
Demand growth has slowed due to the energy transition and electrification, particularly in transport fuels.
Combustible fossil fuel demand will peak at 81.6 mb/d in 2028 as policies promote efficiency and clean energy.
China remains the largest contributor to global demand growth, increasing its consumption by ~400 kb/d over the outlook period.
Transportation demand losses are offset by growth in petrochemical feedstocks and Asia.

Global oil production reached a record high in 2022 before moderate growth over the forecast period.
Non-OPEC+ supply, particularly from the Americas, drives medium-term capacity expansion (~5 mb/d net gain by 2028).
OPEC+ spare capacity (~3.8 mb/d) will continue to support market balances amid demand growth.
US tight oil (LTO) growth maturation reduces expansion trajectory due to higher costs and environmental pressures.
Canada's oil sands production faces challenges from decarbonization requirements and financing.

Global refining capacity is expected to increase by 4.4 mb/d to reach 111 mb/d by 2028.
China's dominance of spare capacity increases its influence on product trade flows.
Refinery closures continue, particularly in Europe and the Atlantic Basin, driven by efficiency improvements and demand shifts.
Asian demand for light-end products creates trade imbalances, requiring adjustments from refiners.

The energy crisis accelerates the shift away from oil in transport, with EVs reducing demand growth by ~7.8 mb/d over the forecast.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine temporarily disrupted markets, accelerating clean energy deployment and policy changes.
China's policies on exploration, production, and refining integration shape its dominant role in petrochemical demand.

The global energy transition poses both challenges and opportunities for different regions.
While demand growth has decelerated, Asia-Pacific remains a growth driver for several decades.
Market balances are supported by spare capacity buffers and ongoing adjustments in trade flows.

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