20140815-Maybank_KERPL-Grease_Spot_–_15_August_2014_12页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary - 15 August 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides an overview of the oil and gas market performance and news highlights from August 14-15, 2014, with a focus on Asia, including China, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. It also includes analyst reports and valuation comparisons for several key companies in the region and globally.

Market Performance

Brent Crude Oil: Down 2.8% to $102.07 per barrel.
WTI Crude Oil: Down 2.1% to $95.58 per barrel.
Henry Hub Natural Gas: Up 2.0% to $3.91 per MMBtu.
LNG Northeast Asia CFR: Flat at $12.00 per MMBtu, with the index based on ICAPs JKM 1-month forward price.
Singapore 92 RON Spot: Down 2.3% to $107.57 per barrel.
Gasoil 500 ppm SG Spot: Up 1.1% to $118.59 per barrel.
3.5% 180cst Fuel SG Spot: Up 0.6% to $593.97 per metric ton.
Gold: Flat at $1,313.52 per ounce.
USD-CNY Exchange Rate: Flat at 6.15.
DJI Index: Up 0.4% to 16,713.58.
S&P 500 Index: Up 0.4% to 1,955.18.

News Headlines

United States

BSEE Chief Calls for Comprehensive Offshore Drilling Database: Brian Salerno of the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) emphasized the need for shared data among operators to assess risk properly.

China

Private Wholesalers' Oil Product Inventories Down 4.4%: Due to strong summer gasoline demand, inventories dropped by 13,500 tonnes.
Shandong Independent Refiners at 33.1% Utilization: A 4.6ppt decline from the previous week.
Teapot Refiners Blend More Asphalt for Feedstock: Due to constrained fuel oil supply and high premiums on Russian M100 fuel oil.
Guangdong Minor Refiners at 5.9% Utilization: Flat compared to the previous week.
CNPC Asks Chad to Forgo USD1.2b Environmental Claim: CNPC claims that the oil dumped caused no environmental damage.
PetroChina: Natural Gas Price Hike Expected: The NDRC announced a CNY0.40/CM increase effective 1 September 2014, aligning with market expectations.

Russia

South Stream Pipeline on Hold: Due to ongoing political conflicts with Ukraine.

Norway

Rosneft to Drill at Pingvin Prospect: With a 20% stake through RN Nordic Oil, approved by Norway's Petroleum Safety Authority.

Analyst Reports

Swiber Holdings

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: SGD0.57
Key Points: Weak 2Q14 results, orderbook at USD610m, target price cut due to low utilization.

Mermaid Maritime

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD0.60
Key Points: Strong operating leverage, operating margins jumped 13.6ppt, maintain BUY with raised target price.

Perisai Petroleum

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR1.76
Key Points: Subdued 2Q results, 2014 earnings cut by 50% due to vessel immobilisation, focus on 2015-16 growth.

PetroChina

Rating: BUY
Target Price: HKD11.50
Key Points: Natural gas price hike expected, central government's energy reform, main beneficiary.

Icon Offshore Berhad

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR2.00
Key Points: Initiate coverage, 3-year net profit CAGR of 30%, fleet expansion expected.

Petronas Gas

Rating: HOLD
Target Price: MYR23.50
Key Points: Solid profit delivery, 1H14 core net profit in line with expectations, maintain HOLD.

Nam Cheong Ltd

Rating: BUY
Target Price: SGD0.55
Key Points: Consistent delivery, higher revenue recognition, maintain BUY with target price.

Perdana Petroleum

Rating: BUY
Target Price: MYR2.55
Key Points: Top pick for OSV play, potential earnings boost from new AWBs in 2016.

Valuation Comparison

Asia Oil & Gas

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 14-Aug	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD	90D T/O USDm	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Buy	10.68	11.50	236.2	96.8	11.7	10.5	5.6	5.1	11.3	1.3	3.8
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Hold	7.64	6.85	102.6	72.5	10.2	9.7	5.1	4.7	11.7	1.2	3.9
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Hold	14.64	14.34	84.3	88.6	9.6	9.0	4.0	3.6	15.1	1.4	3.7
ONGC	ONGC IN	NR	410.10	NR	57.6	50.8	10.9	9.6	4.9	4.4	17.8	1.8	2.8
Reliance Industries	RIL IN	NR	1,002.95	NR	53.3	69.1	12.4	11.1	8.4	7.3	12.3	1.4	1.0
Cairn India	CAIR IN	Buy	318.60	443.00	9.8	15.4	4.4	4.2	3.0	2.8	23.6	4.4	4.4
BPCL	BPCL IN	NR	613.35	NR	7.3	18.5	15.1	13.4	7.6	7.1	14.7	2.1	2.1
HPCL	HPCL IN	NR	414.30	NR	2.3	14.4	9.4	7.9	6.7	6.2	10.0	0.9	2.9
Petron Corp	PCOR PM	Buy	12.70	16.80	2.7	1.3	15.9	8.1	10.4	6.2	6.7	1.3	0.4
Phoenix Petro	PNX PM	Buy	5.68	7.05	0.2	0.1	9.2	7.8	9.0	8.0	13.9	1.2	1.8

Asia Oil Service

Company	Ticker	KE Rating	Price 14-Aug	Target Price	Mkt Cap USD	90D T/O USDm	P/E 2014E	P/E 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2014E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	RoE %	P/B (X)	Yield %
Anton Oilfield Services	3337 HK	NR	4.30	NR	1.2	8.4	18.9	14.9	9.9	8.2	16.0	2.9	1.7
China Oilfield Services-H	2883 HK	NR	19.68	NR	13.3	16.3	9.9	9.2	8.1	7.4	17.7	1.6	2.9
Chu Kong Petroleum	1938 HK	NR	2.73	NR	0.4	0.7	66.6	14.4	24.6	15.8	1.6	0.6	0.4
Hilong Holding	1623 HK	NR	4.15	NR	0.9	3.0	11.7	9.6	7.6	6.2	16.5	1.8	2.5
Honghua Group	196 HK	NR	1.88	NR	0.8	1.5	7.7	6.7	6.4	5.7	12.5	0.9	3.6
Sinopec Engineering-H	2386 HK	NR	9.00	NR	5.1	4.8	7.6	6.8	3.7	3.4	18.4	1.3	4.4
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	3.97	NR	0.8	3.5	14.1	10.1	7.8	5.9	18.0	2.3	1.8

Key Information

Market Trends: Crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) fell, while Henry Hub prices rose slightly. LNG prices remained flat.
China's Refining Sector: Utilization rates for refiners in Shandong and Guangdong were low, with some companies adjusting their strategies due to supply constraints and demand patterns.
CNPC and Environmental Claims: CNPC sought to resolve environmental disputes with Chad.
PetroChina: Expected to benefit from a natural gas price hike, with a BUY rating and target price of HKD11.50.
Rosneft and Pingvin Prospect: Approved drilling project in the Barents Sea.
Analyst Ratings: Several companies received BUY ratings, including Mermaid Maritime, Perdana Petroleum, and Nam Cheong Ltd, while others were maintained on HOLD or had no rating (NR).

Summary

The document highlights the regional performance of oil and gas markets, emphasizing the impact of seasonal demand on China's oil inventories and the challenges faced by refiners. It also discusses the political implications of Russia's pipeline plans and the potential for growth in offshore oil and gas services. Analyst reports suggest that some companies are well-positioned for future growth, while others face operational and financial challenges. Valuation comparisons provide insights into the current market dynamics and expectations for future performance.

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