世界银行-有效应对危机的适应性社会保护：独立评价小组对世界银行贡献的评价（方法文件）（英）-2023-59页_1mb

The report evaluates the World Bank's support for adaptive social protection (ASP) in responding to covariate shocks (e.g., natural disasters, economic downturns). Covariate shocks threaten human development, disproportionately affecting poor households due to limited resources and vulnerability to poverty. ASP aims to build household resilience by integrating social protection, disaster risk management, and climate adaptation sectors, enabling timely, adequate responses.

Key ASP elements examined include strengthened programs (e.g., risk-informed targeting, surge capacity); data and information systems (e.g., updating social registries for early warning integration); adequate finance (e.g., risk layering); and institutional arrangements partnerships. World Bank support has evolved from project-focused to system-based, with tools like the Stress Test and Sahel program demonstrating ASP's potential.

The evaluation's purpose is twofold: (1) assess relevance of ASP incorporation in high-risk countries and alignment with evidence; (2) evaluate effectiveness in achieving socially timely and adequate responses. It employs a theory of change to guide investments in ASP building blocks (programs, data, finance, partnerships), focusing on 424 lending projects and advisory services.

Portfolio review shows ASP growth, particularly in fragile states and Africa, with mixed results. Case studies and diagnostics revealed that strong country institutions and partnerships are crucial for ASP success. Limitations include an inability to directly measure household resilience, data constraints, and reliance on expert input.

Findings indicate ASP's importance to crisis preparedness, but challenges in institutional coordination and data systems remain. Lessons from previous evaluations highlight the need for adaptive frameworks, increased investment in systems, and drawing on evidence from past crises to improve responses for polycrises.

Marginalia:

• ASP Definition: ASP integrates sectors to build resilience by adjusting targeting, designing for preparedness, and ensuring coordinated response through updated data, finance, and partnerships.
• Evaluation Period: Covers FY12–22, focusing on 265 projects and advisory services.
• Lessons Drawn: Emphasize system strengthening, coordination, and evidence-based approaches from prior World Bank evaluations like CRSS, SSN reviews, and Ebola/COVID responses.