世界银行-评估社会保护的适应性_提高蒙古牧民应对气候冲击的能力（英）-2025_81页_15mb

Summary of the Report on Adapting Social Protection and Enhancing Herder Resilience

Executive Summary

• Context: Mongolia faces frequent climate shocks, particularly dzuds, which severely impact herder livelihoods. Poverty and vulnerability remain high despite economic improvements.
• Social Protection Role: Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) is critical for mitigating shock impacts, as demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Report Objectives: Assess Mongolia’s social protection adaptability to covariate shocks and enhance resilience, especially for herder households.
• Methodology: Uses the World Bank’s Social Protection Stress Test Tool (SPSTT) to evaluate ASP through four pillars: institutional, program, data, and finance.

Key Findings: Adaptability of Social Protection

1. Institutional Arrangements:

   • Robust legal frameworks exist for disaster risk reduction (DRR) and social assistance.
   • However, institutional coordination for ASP integration with DRR plans needs improvement.
   • Strengthen subnational-level disaster risk reduction and social protection coordination to enhance local resilience.

2. Programs and Delivery Systems:

   • Social assistance programs are well-developed. Recent COVID-19 measures (e.g., vertical expansion) show ASP capacity.
   • Challenges include limited horizontal expansion and inefficient targeting during shocks.
   • Digitized payment systems are mature, but communication and grievance mechanisms need improvement.

3. Data and Information Management:

   • Existing data systems (e.g., Integrated Household Administrative Database) support ASP.
   • Limitations include outdated census data and insufficient real-time livestock information.
   • Strengthen data interoperability and update mechanisms for better shock response targeting.

4. Finance:

   • Social protection financing is adequate but relies heavily on reactive measures (post-disaster reallocation).
   • Need a comprehensive Disaster Risk Financing (DRF) strategy, including insurance tools, to enhance proactive funding.

Recommendations

1. Integrate ASP into Legal and Institutional Frameworks:

   • Amend the Social Welfare Law to include ASP strategies.
   • Incorporate ASP into national disaster risk management plans and contingency strategies.

2. Strengthen Subnational ASP and Financing:

   • Allocate local funds for localized shocks and strengthen coordination mechanisms.
   • Develop a DRF strategy, including guidelines for ASP financing and risk transfer instruments.

3. Enhance Data and Information Systems:

   • Revise the Integrated Household Administrative Database (IHAD) to include more data sources and streamline updates.

4. Improve Programs and Delivery Systems:

   • Expand the reach of vertical and horizontal expansion to ensure timely support during shocks.
   • Promote cash transfers and improve the timeliness of interventions for dzud-prone areas.

5. Specific Measures for Herder Resilience Against Dzud:

   • Implement seasonal cash transfers to herders to prepare for dzud.
   • Use livelihood exposure risk maps to identify and target vulnerable communities.
   • Leverage index-based livestock insurance by addressing affordability and threshold issues.

Conclusion

• Mongolia’s social protection system has demonstrated strength in responding to shocks but needs systemic improvements—particularly in coordination, data use, and proactive financing—to effectively support herder resilience against climate shocks.