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Summary of ASSESSING THE ADAPTABILITY OF SOCIAL PROTECTION AND ENHANCING HERDER RESILIENCE AGAINST CLIMATE SHOCKS IN MONGOLIA

Core Content

This report assesses the adaptability of Mongolia's social protection system in response to climate shocks, particularly dzud, and provides recommendations to enhance the resilience of herding communities. It highlights the importance of adaptive social protection (ASP) in mitigating the impacts of covariate shocks and supports the government's efforts in improving social assistance mechanisms.

Main Findings

1.1 Poverty, Vulnerability, and Climate Shocks

• Poverty Trends: Poverty in Mongolia has declined slightly over the past few years, but it remains prevalent in both urban and rural areas. The national poverty headcount ratio dropped from 29.6% in 2016 to 27.8% in 2020, though more recent data (2022) shows a poverty rate of 27.1% due to methodological changes.
• Urban and Rural Poverty: Urban poverty has remained stagnant at 27% between 2016 and 2018, while rural poverty has decreased more rapidly. However, rural poverty (30.8% in 2018) still exceeds the national average.
• Herder Vulnerability: Herders, who constitute 21.4% of the national population and 53% of the rural population, are among the most vulnerable groups. Despite improvements in livestock prices and market access, over 27.7% of herders remain poor and highly exposed to climate shocks.
• Climate Change Impact: Mongolia is experiencing rising temperatures (2.14°C over 80 years), more frequent heatwaves, and increased climate-related events (up 2.9 times since 2015). These changes threaten pasturelands and livestock sustainability.

1.2 Adaptive Social Protection and Climate Shocks

• ASP Definition: ASP refers to the capacity of social protection systems to respond flexibly and effectively to shocks, both economic and climate-related.
• Government Response to Dzud: The government has implemented emergency feed programs, non-interest loans, and other support mechanisms to address dzud impacts.
• Role of ASP: ASP is vital for reducing vulnerability and enhancing resilience among herders, as demonstrated by the swift response to the COVID-19 crisis.

1.3 Assessment Framework and Methodology

• The report uses the World Bank's Social Protection Stress Test Tool (SPSTT) to evaluate the adaptability of the social protection system.
• The assessment includes both primary data (workshops, interviews, field visits) and secondary data (government reports, academic publications, international organizations).
• The evaluation is structured around four pillars: Institutional arrangements and partnerships, Programs and delivery systems, Data and information, and Finance.

Key Recommendations

4.1 Recommendations for the Social Protection System

4.2 Recommendations to Enhance Herder Resilience Against Dzud

Key Challenges

• Index-Based Livestock Insurance (IBLI): While available, it is costly and has strict eligibility criteria, limiting its accessibility to herders.
• Data Gaps: The Household Information Database (HID) has limited coverage, hindering effective targeting of assistance.
• Funding and Coordination: Local-level support is often ad-hoc and constrained by funding. Coordination between national and subnational actors is essential for effective shock response.
• Disaster Risk Financing (DRF): Current DRF mechanisms rely heavily on post-disaster government funding, with limited proactive tools and weak enforcement of disaster risk reduction budgets.

Conclusion

The report underscores the critical need for a more adaptive and resilient social protection system in Mongolia, especially for herding communities vulnerable to climate shocks like dzud. It emphasizes the importance of integrating ASP into legal and institutional frameworks, improving data systems, enhancing subnational coordination, and developing comprehensive DRF strategies. These measures are essential for supporting herders in both preparation and recovery from climate-induced disasters.