2025-06-11-花旗集团-美国经济_每日更新-关税会在消费者物价指数中体现吗_13页_288kb

The report, from Citigroup Research dated June 11, 2025, analyzes US economic conditions and projects that tariffs from U.S.-China agreements will not significantly impact core Consumer Price Index (CPI) amid ongoing disinflation. Core inflation slowed in March-April, with a projected 0.248% MoM increase in CPI and 0.21% MoM in core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for May, keeping the Fed encouraged about underlying inflation trends. Tariff effects on goods prices are expected to be subdued at 0.13% MoM and peak over summer but are unlikely to be persistent. Other factors include declining house prices, slow rent increases, and subdued services inflation, while the Fed shows patience with potential policy rate cuts discussed by officials like Jefferson and Daly. Economic data suggests mixed signals from markets and employment, but overall inflation remains anchored below the 2% target.

• Inflation Projections: Core CPI projected at 0.248% MoM for May, core PCE at 0.21% MoM, reflecting cooling inflation after stronger gains earlier in the year.
• Tariff Impact: Likely to modestly increase goods prices by 0.13% MoM, but against a less inflationary backdrop, effects are not sustained.
• Fed Insights: Fed officials maintain an accommodative stance due to softer inflation and stronger economic indicators, with some comments anticipating cuts if tariffs ease.
• Other Economic Data: Job openings and claims indicate labor market cooling slightly; housing and services sectors show downward pressure; market sentiment and asset prices remain range-bound.

This summary highlights the key findings from the daily update on tariffs, inflation, and Fed preparations.