2025-06-13-花旗集团-波兰经济_消费者物价指数（CPI）略微下调_燃油价格冲击可能减缓未来的通货紧缩_9页_197kb

Poland Economics Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of inflation trends and monetary policy outlook in Poland, focusing on the May 2025 CPI data and its implications for the National Bank of Poland (NBP) and the broader economic environment.

Key Findings

• CPI Data:

  • The final CPI release for May 2025 showed inflation at 4% YoY, slightly lower than the initial 4.1% flash estimate.
  • Monthly inflation was -0.2% MoM, indicating a small decrease in prices.
  • Services inflation fell to 6% YoY, the lowest since January 2020, driven by a 1.8% MoM drop in recreation and culture due to deflation in package holidays.

• Core Inflation:

  • Core inflation dropped to 3.2% YoY from 3.4% YoY in April.
  • Seasonally adjusted core inflation was less than 0.1% MoM in May.
  • The three-month moving average of core inflation is now at 2.2%, showing a significant easing in inflation pressures.

• Inflation Outlook:

  • Despite the lower CPI and easing core inflation, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to keep inflation above 3% in July.
  • Fuel and electricity prices are expected to slow the disinflation process.
  • Inflation is anticipated to moderate over time, potentially stabilizing around 2.5% in 2026.

• Monetary Policy Response:

  • The NBP is expected to maintain a cautious stance despite easing inflation.
  • Rate cuts are anticipated, but the pace and scale may be slower than the market expects.
  • The base case assumes 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025 and another 50 bps in 2026.

Key Drivers

• Fuel Price Shock:

  • A sharp rise in oil prices could keep inflation at a higher level than previously anticipated.
  • This is a major factor that may influence the NBP's decision-making.

• Seasonal and Structural Factors:

  • Seasonal patterns in food prices remained largely unchanged.
  • The decline in fuel and energy prices contributed to the overall CPI moderation.
  • The drop in recreation and culture prices was a key structural factor in services inflation.

Inflation Forecasts

Month	CPI YoY (%)	CPI MoM (%)	Core Inflation YoY (%)	NBP Policy Rate (%)
May 2025	4.0	-0.2	3.2	5.25
June 2025	4.1	0.2	3.2	5.25
July 2025	3.1	0.3	3.1	5.25
August 2025	2.8	-0.1	2.8	5.25
September 2025	3.0	0.2	2.7	5.00
October 2025	3.0	0.3	2.6	4.75
November 2025	2.7	0.1	2.8	4.75
December 2025	2.9	0.2	2.6	4.75
January 2026	2.6	0.7	2.4	4.75
February 2026	2.3	0.2	2.3	4.50
March 2026	2.4	0.2	2.0	4.50
April 2026	2.3	0.3	2.0	4.50
May 2026	2.6	0.2	2.0	4.50
June 2026	2.6	0.3	2.0	4.25
July 2026	2.2	0.2	2.0	4.25
August 2026	2.1	0.3	2.0	4.25
September 2026	2.1	0.2	2.0	4.25
October 2026	2.2	0.3	2.0	4.0

Analysts' Views

• CITI'S TAKE:

  • While core inflation is easing, the impact of higher oil prices could slow future disinflation.
  • The MPC communication is showing a hawkish tilt, which may lead to more cautious rate cuts than the market expects.
  • The inflation trajectory provides space for monetary easing, but the NBP is expected to err on the cautious side.

• Key Figures:

  • Piotr Kalisz, CFA
  • Arkadiusz Trzciolek

Disclosures and Affiliations

• The research analysts are affiliated with Bank Handlowy w Warszawie.

• Important Disclosures:

  • The Firm may have conflicts of interest due to its business relationships with covered companies.
  • Compensation is not linked to specific transactions or recommendations.
  • Recommendations are based on independent analysis and may not reflect the views of the subject companies.
  • Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
  • Forecasts are not a guarantee of future performance.

• Regulatory Compliance:

  • The report is subject to regulatory requirements in various jurisdictions.
  • Non-US analysts are not registered with FINRA and may not be subject to its rules.
  • Investors are advised to consult their legal and tax advisors for compliance and accurate calculations.

Conclusion

• The CPI data for May 2025 shows a slight moderation in inflation, but geopolitical tensions and fuel price increases are expected to delay the disinflation process.
• Core inflation is muted, supporting the potential for continued monetary easing.
• The NBP is likely to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts, which may slow the pace of monetary policy easing.
• Inflation is expected to stabilize around 2.5% in 2026, but short-term volatility remains a concern.