2025-06-09-花旗集团-美国经济_通胀周报——商品与服务_14页_278kb

Key Insights from Citi Research Report

Inflation Trends

• Tariff Pass-Through: May start showing effects in data, but limited impact expected due to inventory delays; larger effects anticipated later in summer/fall.
• Services Inflation: Slowing further in May, with core PCE expected at 3.1% YoY; services remain a key driver of headline inflation.
• Core PCE Forecast: Stabilized around 2.7-3.2% YoY through 2026, influenced by goods inflation acceleration.

Wage Growth

• Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% MoM in May, driven by hours worked reduction in private services; Atlanta Fed wage tracker indicates slowening due to weakening labor demand.

Inflation Expectations

• Anchored despite tariff-related volatility; NY Fed survey shows lower expectations (e.g., one-year inflation at 3.2%).

Data and Methodology

• Evidence from BLS, ISM, and PMI indicates mixed signals, with manufacturing input prices rising but services inflation understated.
• Sustainability in inflation, supported by slowing core non-shelter services and other metrics.

Citi Forecasts

• Detailed inflation path: CPI core slowing, PPI goods influenced by tariffs, data reliability noted with seasonal adjustments.
• Overall, inflation expected to decelerate but remain above 2% for core PCE by year-end.