2025-06-15-花旗集团-美国经济_通胀周报-更高的投入成本遭遇更疲软的需求_14页_282kb

报告摘要

Inflation Weekly Insights: June 16, 2025

Key Findings:
- May inflation data was unexpectedly soft, showing no clear evidence of tariffs significantly increasing consumer prices. Core PCE inflation is forecast to increase modestly to 0.14% month-over-month for May, influenced by base effects that lift YoY inflation from 2.5% to 2.6%.
- Higher input costs from tariffs may exert upward pressure on prices in the coming months, but delayed tariff implementation and elevated uncertainty are causing businesses to postpone price hikes. Some impacts could appear by June for autos.
- Weaker consumer demand, evident in subdued services prices (e.g., airfares, hotels, recreation) and easing labor market, limits the pass-through of tariff costs and constrains wage growth. Average hourly earnings rose modestly, but the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker indicates stability at 4.2% YoY, with further slowing anticipated.
- Oil price increases this month could boost headline CPI by about 0.2 percentage points, but core inflation remains insulated, with current forecasts unchanged due to soft demand.
Economic Outlook:
- Inflation is expected to slow faster than previously anticipated, with core PCE inflation forecast around 3.0% for Q2-Q4 2025, heavily influenced by services. Goods prices may rise later in the summer if inventories deplete.
- Wage growth continues to ease, reinforcing that low labor demand caps upward pressure on earnings.
- Charts illustrate declining services prices and modest core PCE growth, with forecasts suggesting inflation may peak at 3.2% thereafter.
Cautions and Uncertainties:
- Technical factors like quality adjustments in goods (e.g., electronics) and base effects complicate inflation data interpretation, making monthly readings unreliable for extrapolation.
- Delays in tariff resolution and inventory dynamics introduce uncertainty, but the risk of abnormally high price increases is noted for later in the summer.