2025-06-16-花旗集团-美国经济_联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）预览-通胀放缓带来鸽派风险_11页_169kb

报告摘要

FOMC Meeting Preview Summary

Overview: The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to maintain a "wait-and-see" posture regarding policy, but indications of inflation slowing and lack of tariff impact may increase the likelihood of rate cuts later this year.

Key Points:

Fed Positioning: The Federal Reserve is waiting for clarity on the inflation impact, particularly from tariffs, before acting on rates.
Economic Context:
- 3 months of softer core inflation data.
- Lack of significant price pressure from tariffs so far.
- Dovish signals may arise from Powell acknowledging the slowdown in services inflation and no tariff pass-through.
Rate Projections:
- Median "dots" likely remain unchanged, signaling two 25 bp rate cuts in 2025.
- Citi sees little hawkish incentive to shift the 2025 dot higher despite inflation upward revisions, due to persistent softer inflation.
Labor Market & Risks: While noting low unemployment, the Fed may highlight downside risks from rising continuing jobless claims, low hiring rates, and narrow job growth, as well as concerns about housing activity constraining the economy.
Potential Changes: The SEP likely reflects higher inflation and unemployment forecasts. No clear rate path guidance is expected.
Timeline: Powell may emphasize the need for more data before acting. Citi anticipates potential rate cuts resuming in September following July's data assessment.