期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-September1977_16页_1mb

NBER Reporter Summary (September 1977)

Core Content

The September 1977 issue of the NBER Reporter highlights the National Bureau of Economic Research's (NBER) wide-ranging research and its contributions to understanding economic and social issues. It features profiles of key NBER figures, analysis of monetary trends, health economics, and cost-price relations in the business cycle, as well as summaries of technical research papers and upcoming events.

Main Topics and Key Points

1. Editorial Message

• The NBER emphasizes the importance of empirical research that is objective and impartial.
• The Reporter aims to provide insights into the Bureau's work and the people behind it.
• The document encourages reader feedback and aims to offer a broader geographical representation of NBER activities in the future.

2. Current NBER Conference

• An international conference on "Education and Economic Development in Latin America" is taking place in Washington, D.C., jointly sponsored by the NBER and the Program of Joint Studies on Latin American Integration (ECIEL).
• The conference is coordinated by Paul Wachtel (NYU) and Jorge A. Sanguinetty (ECIEL), under the direction of M. Ishaq Nadiri.
• A major study by Claudio de Moura Castro and Jorge A. Sanguinetty on education costs and determinants in ten Latin American countries is highlighted.
• This study is compared to the Coleman Report and the Stockholm survey in its methodology and scope.
• The conference includes contributions from various economists and institutions, such as the World Bank, Brookings Institution, and UCLA.

3. NBER Personalities

Eli Shapiro

• A long-time NBER associate, known for his dual career in academia and the business world.
• Was part of the NBER's Financial Research Project in the 1930s and contributed to the 1940 study on personal finance companies.
• Served in various government roles, including the U.S. Treasury, Office of Price Administration, and Federal Reserve System.
• Acted as Deputy Director of Research on the Commission on Money and Credit (1958-1961), contributing significantly to U.S. financial policy.
• Holds prominent academic and corporate positions, including being a Sloan Professor at MIT and Vice Chairman of the Travelers Corporation.
• Has been active in NBER's Board of Directors since 1974 and Executive Committee since 1976.

4. Monetary Matters: Milton Friedman

• Milton Friedman was awarded the 1976 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work on monetary theory, much of which was conducted at the NBER.
• His book "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960" co-authored with Anna Schwartz is described as monumental and influential in understanding the relationship between money supply and economic activity.
• A new NBER project with Friedman and Schwartz, "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom", is nearing completion. It analyzes a century of data on money, prices, output, and interest rates, using average values over business cycle phases to eliminate short-term fluctuations.
• This study is notable for its unprecedented approach of combining data from both countries in a single analysis.

5. Health Horizons: Victor Fuchs

• Victor R. Fuchs, vice president of the NBER and director of its Palo Alto office, focuses on health economics.
• He believes that changes in personal behavior and lifestyle offer the greatest potential for improving America's health.
• The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation has provided a $200,000 grant for a three-year health economics program.
• The program will examine areas such as health-preserving behavior, work and health, the physician's role in determining medical care demand, and surgery utilization across socioeconomic groups.

6. Cost-Price Relations in the Business Cycle

• Wesley C. Mitchell first described the cost-price relationship in business cycles in 1913, noting that during recovery, prices rise faster than costs initially, but later costs outpace prices.
• This pattern has been observed in four business cycles since 1948, as documented by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
• The study suggests that understanding cost-price dynamics is crucial for analyzing inflation and business cycle behavior.
• The NBER has been investigating this phenomenon, with Geoffrey H. Moore summarizing the research.

7. NBER Research Summaries

7.1 Taxation and Capital Accumulation

• Michael J. Boskin re-examines the economic effects of taxing human and nonhuman capital.
• The study finds a positive relationship between private saving and the real net rate of return on capital, with significant policy implications.
• A semi-log function and log-linear function both estimate the interest elasticity of saving around 0.4, suggesting that saving is responsive to interest rates.
• The current tax treatment of capital income (about 50% tax rate) significantly reduces the net return to saving, leading to a substantial decrease in saving and capital accumulation.
• The study estimates that the annual inefficiency due to capital income taxes is $50 billion, with long-term effects including a 20% reduction in the capital-labor ratio.

7.2 Specialization, Diversification, and the Allocation of Corporate Resources

• A study by Michael Gort, Henry Grabowski, and Robert McGuckin explores why large and medium-sized firms are diversifying despite growing markets.
• The authors argue that diversification is not primarily for risk reduction, as stockholders can diversify their portfolios independently.
• They suggest that other goals may be influencing corporate diversification, such as strategic considerations or managerial behavior.
• The study is summarized by Hedy D. Jellinek, highlighting the need for further analysis of corporate resource allocation in the context of economic growth and stability.

8. The National Bureau's Data Bank: The Magnetic Tape Collection

• The NBER maintains a comprehensive data bank known as the Magnetic Tape Collection, which is a critical resource for its research.
• The data are used to analyze various economic phenomena, including business cycles, monetary trends, and cost-price relations.

9. Current NBER Publications

• The Reporter lists recent NBER publications, which include detailed research on monetary history, health economics, and business cycle dynamics.

Conclusion

The NBER Reporter for September 1977 reflects the Bureau's commitment to empirical research, policy analysis, and interdisciplinary studies. It underscores the importance of understanding economic behavior, monetary trends, and health economics in shaping future economic policies. The document also highlights the role of key figures like Eli Shapiro, Milton Friedman, and Victor Fuchs in advancing the NBER's mission.