2017年Q4全球经济状况调研（英文版）_28页_906kb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Final Report: Q4, 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide. It tracks economic confidence and provides insights into global economic trends, with its main indices serving as reliable predictors of GDP growth and showing strong correlation with the VIX (fear index).

The Q4 2017 survey collected 4,011 responses, including over 250 CFOs, from members across the globe. While global economic confidence dipped slightly in the final quarter of 2017, it remained higher than the past couple of years, aligning with PMIs and hard economic data indicating the global economy is still in decent health.

Main Views and Key Findings

Global Confidence Trends

• Global confidence dipped slightly, but remains above historical averages.
• The gap between those expecting conditions to worsen and improve widened to 14 percentage points.
• Regional performance was mixed:
  • Central and South America showed the highest confidence.
  • North America and South Asia followed, with confidence still relatively strong.
  • Caribbean and Middle East had the lowest confidence levels.
• The Caribbean saw a plummet in confidence, attributed to the impact of hurricanes in 2017.
• Middle East confidence was low due to slump in oil prices since 2015.

Key Concerns of Respondents

• Rising costs were the primary concern (52%).
• Decreased incomes (39%) and foreign currency movements (28%) were the next major concerns.
• Suppliers going out of business was the least cited concern (10%).

Opportunities Identified

• The main positive development cited by respondents was the opportunity to lower costs (43%).
• Innovation (40%) was the second most cited opportunity.
• Increasing orders was the least cited (12%).

Thematic Analysis

US Tax Cuts: Inflation Risk

• The US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, but many US companies will still pay around 25% in taxes.
• Tax cuts may boost inflation more than growth, especially with the Federal Reserve likely to increase interest rates.
• Long-term fiscal risks are significant, with government debt at 75% of GDP, expected to rise to 100% of GDP within a decade.

China: Reforms and Economic Slowdown

• China's confidence dropped in Q4, partly due to high confidence in Q3 and slowing growth.
• The NPC reforms aim to level the playing field between private and state-owned sectors.
• There is uncertainty about whether these reforms will lead to economic recovery, as anti-corruption efforts have taken precedence.

Global Financial Crisis: Lessons and Risks

• The global economy has improved since the 2008 crisis, with reduced risky lending and stronger regulations.
• However, debt levels in emerging markets (e.g., China, Turkey) remain elevated, posing a risk of future crises.
• Low interest rates could lead to overvalued assets, while aggressive tightening may stifle growth.
• Populism and protectionism are concerns, with the UK's Brexit and US trade policies as key risks.

Regional Analysis

North America

• Confidence improved significantly in Q4, with 31% more confident than less confident.
• The US saw a strong rebound in confidence, linked to tax reforms and business investment.
• Canada showed mixed signals, with more people expecting worsening conditions than improvement, despite strong trade ties with the US.

Western Europe

• Confidence dropped, with 18 percentage point gap between negative and positive expectations.
• Despite positive economic data, political uncertainty (especially in Germany) and high unemployment in some countries dampened confidence.
• Rising costs remain the biggest concern, driven by sterling's decline post-Brexit.
• UK confidence hit a record low, with Brexit uncertainty a major factor.

South Asia

• India had the highest confidence in the survey, with 26% more respondents expecting improvement than worsening.
• Pakistan saw a sharp decline in confidence, with negative outlook due to economic slowdown and external debt issues.

Central & Eastern Europe

• Confidence reached its lowest level since Q3 2016, with employment index in negative territory.
• Poland and the Czech Republic are facing capacity constraints, suggesting potential need for tighter monetary policy.

The Caribbean

• Confidence remained in negative territory, largely due to hurricane damage.
• Tourism sector is particularly affected, with rebuilding efforts expected to boost growth in the long term.

Cyprus

• Economic recovery is ongoing, with unemployment falling and tourism growth contributing to the rebound in confidence.
• However, the banking sector is still weak, with non-performing loans at 46% of total loans.

Ireland

• Confidence dipped slightly, but remained relatively high.
• Recent Brexit progress has boosted confidence, though capital spending showed a slight decline.

Conclusion

The Q4 2017 GECS highlights a mixed global economic outlook, with confidence remaining high in some regions and declining in others. While North America and South Asia showed positive trends, the Caribbean and Middle East faced challenges. US tax cuts are expected to stimulate the economy, but inflation risks and fiscal sustainability are concerns. China faces economic slowdown and reform uncertainty, while Western Europe grapples with political instability and debt concerns. The UK remains vulnerable to Brexit uncertainty, and global interest rates and protectionism pose long-term risks. Overall, the survey underscores the importance of economic policy and external shocks in shaping global confidence.