2017年Q1全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）_28页_479kb

报告摘要

ACCA (the Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is a global professional body for accountants, supporting over 188,000 members and 480,000 students in 181 countries.
IMA (the Institute of Management Accountants) is a leading association focused on advancing the management accounting profession, with over 85,000 members in 140 countries.
The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS) is conducted jointly by ACCA and IMA and is the largest regular economic survey of accountants globally in terms of both respondents and economic variables monitored.

The GECS for Q1 2017 attracted 1,334 responses, including over 150 CFOs.
Economic confidence rebounded in Q1 2017, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015.
This improvement is supported by other survey data and hard economic data, such as manufacturing PMIs and export figures.
The US played a key role in this recovery, with investors optimistic about fiscal reform, infrastructure investment, and deregulation.

The main indices of the GECS are good predictors of GDP growth.
They correlate well with the VIX (fear) index, indicating that the survey can reflect market volatility and expectations.

The biggest concern for companies was increased costs (46% of respondents), consistent with rising inflation in both developed and developing economies.
The next two concerns were decreased incomes (39%) and the negative impact of foreign-exchange movements (35%).

Economic confidence improved slightly in Q1 2017, with 37% of respondents confident and 24% less optimistic.
US confidence remained relatively high, driven by expectations of fiscal stimulus and deregulation.
US companies cited increased costs (43%) as their main concern.
The US dollar is expected to strengthen due to rising interest rates, potentially affecting the competitiveness of US firms.

Economic confidence rebounded significantly in Q1 2017, with 37% of respondents confident and 24% less optimistic.
The Eurozone saw an increase in export demand and private consumption, despite inflationary pressures.
Eurozone companies cited rising costs (50%) as their main concern.
The UK experienced a rebound in economic confidence, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015, supported by consumer spending and a weaker pound.
Ireland saw a slight increase in confidence, but it remains weak by historical standards due to Brexit uncertainty.
Capital spending and employment indexes improved in the UK, while government spending dropped, reflecting ongoing fiscal austerity.

CEE economic confidence rebounded strongly in Q1 2017, tied closely to the Eurozone's performance.
Russia remained relatively stable in confidence, with GDP growth steadily increasing.
Capital spending and employment in CEE remained in negative territory, but government spending and export prospects improved.
Turkey and Poland, Czech Republic, and Hungary showed positive growth.

Economic confidence in South Asia was mixed, with the same number of respondents reporting confidence as those expressing pessimism.
India showed a slight increase in confidence, with the economy rebounding from a slowdown caused by demonetisation.
India's key concern was securing prompt payment, linked to the challenges from demonetisation.
Pakistan reported a rise in economic confidence, with increased costs (48%) as the main concern.

Global trade growth showed signs of improvement since 2013, with the fastest rate in nearly two years.
Exports from South Korea and Taiwan grew at their fastest rates since 2012, indicating a positive global trade outlook.
The IMF expects global GDP growth of 3.4% in 2017, the fastest since 2012.
The US is unlikely to follow a highly protectionist agenda, which is seen as a positive development for global trade.
Protectionist policies in the US could be a risk for Mexico and Asia's open economies.
The US dollar is expected to strengthen over the coming year due to diverging monetary cycles and rising interest rates.
Core inflation remains low in the Eurozone and Japan, but high in the US, suggesting differing economic conditions.
Emerging markets have improved significantly over the past year, with GDP growth reaching a five-year high in January 2017.

The GECS for Q1 2017 reflects a global economic recovery, driven by the US and supported by Western Europe and emerging markets.
While confidence is rising, increased costs and exchange rate volatility remain key concerns.
The future outlook is cautiously optimistic, with potential risks from protectionism and monetary policy divergence.
The report highlights the importance of global trade and the role of fiscal and monetary policies in shaping economic conditions.