2018年Q3全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）

报告摘要

ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is a global professional body for accountants, with 208,000 members and 503,000 students in 179 countries.
It supports members through learning, development, and research, promoting accountability and appropriate regulation in accounting.
ACCA is introducing major innovations to its qualifications to maintain relevance and value in the profession.
IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) is a leading association for management accountants, with over 100,000 members in 140 countries.
IMA focuses on advancing the management accounting profession through research, education, and advocacy of ethical practices.
It operates through four global regions: The Americas, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and Middle East/India.

Economic confidence fell in Q3 2018, reaching its lowest level since Q1 2016.
The decline is attributed to global growth slowing, primarily due to weaknesses in the US and China.
South Asia was the most confident region, overtaking North America, while the Middle East and Asia Pacific were the least confident.

Rising costs were the biggest concern globally, cited by 57% of respondents (down from 61% in Q2).
This is mainly due to rising commodity prices, especially oil.
Core inflation remains low, indicating underlying inflationary pressures are not as severe.
Unemployment rates in the US and UK are very low, but wage growth has been modest.
Staff cuts and hiring freezes are being considered by 45% of businesses, with only 18% planning to increase staffing.

Economic confidence is at its lowest since Q1 2016, but orders index remains strong.
GDP growth in Q3 is expected to be 3% to 3.5%, down from 4.2% in Q2.
Tax cuts have boosted corporate profits and household incomes, supporting growth.
Trade war with China is a downside risk but unlikely to cause a recession on its own.
Unemployment is at a near-50-year low, and wage growth reached 2.8%, a nine-year high.
Federal Reserve is likely to continue gradual rate hikes, but not enough to trigger a recession.

Economic confidence remains in negative territory, with Brexit uncertainty weighing on sentiment.
Unemployment is at its lowest since the mid-1970s at 4%.
Consumer confidence is positive, with low interest rates, modest wage growth, and rising house prices outside London.
Government spending is still strong, and fiscal position is improving.
Capital expenditure is in negative territory, but employment and retail sales have shown resilience.

Economic confidence fell for the second consecutive quarter, reaching its lowest level since Q4 2016.
External factors, such as the appreciation of the euro and weaker Chinese growth, are key contributors to the decline.
Domestic demand indicators are more positive, with low interest rates and rising employment supporting investment and consumption.
Italy remains a major risk due to high government debt (130% of GDP) and uncertain fiscal policy.

Economic confidence dropped to its lowest level since Q1 2016.
The decline is due to the intensifying trade war with the US and weak domestic data.
Government policy tightening aims to reduce financial sector risks and slow credit growth.
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) faces growing challenges, including rising debt levels and balance-of-payments crises in countries like Pakistan.
Debt levels in BRI recipient countries have increased significantly, raising concerns about sustainability.

Global growth is expected to slow over the next couple of years, driven by economic headwinds in the US and China.
QE has helped stabilize the global economy post-crisis, but policymakers have less room to act due to low interest rates and high government debt.
Interest rates are now much lower than pre-2008 levels, and government debt is higher.
OECD and non-OECD confidence both declined to multi-year lows, with China being a key factor in the decline for non-OECD countries.
Capital expenditure is a major concern, as slower growth reduces investment opportunities.

The GECS is a trusted barometer of global economic conditions, reflecting real-time insights from accountants.
While global growth remains strong, the outlook is moderately pessimistic, with confidence at multi-year lows.
Regional disparities are evident, with South Asia being the most optimistic and Middle East/Asia Pacific the least.
Debt levels, trade tensions, and policy uncertainty are the main risks to the global economy.
Emerging markets may face challenges due to rising interest rates and external demand declines, but the US and Western Europe still show resilience.