2018年Q1全球经济状况调研（英文版）_22页_754kb

报告摘要

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q1, 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants globally. It tracks economic confidence and variables, serving as a trusted barometer for the global economy.

In Q1 2018, economic confidence rebounded strongly and reached a record high, indicating a robust global economic performance. The survey received 1,418 responses, including over 100 CFOs, and highlighted key concerns and responses from businesses.

Main Indices and Trends

Economic confidence reached a record high in Q1 2018, reflecting strong global performance.
North America was the most confident region, followed by Africa.
Central & Eastern Europe and the Middle East were the least confident.
OECD countries saw a significant rise in confidence, while non-OECD countries remained in negative territory.
The VIX index correlated well with the daily trend deviations in the survey, indicating market sentiment.

Key Concerns from Respondents

The top concerns cited by respondents were:

Increased costs (54%)
Falling income (36%)
Worries about customers going out of business (21%)
Suppliers going out of business (9%)

Businesses primarily responded to economic changes by laying off staff (40%), with only 18% considering hiring more employees.

Regional Analysis

North America

Confidence rebounded strongly, reaching its highest level since 2017.
The US saw a notable increase in confidence, supported by tax cuts and strong GDP growth.
Canada also showed a marked recovery, with confidence at a record level.
Concerns about interest rate hikes and tightening labor markets remain.

Western Europe

Confidence rebounded strongly, with the Eurozone performing well, especially Germany.
The government spending sub-component rose to its highest level since 2014.
Despite improvements, unemployment remains high, particularly in Greece, Italy, and Spain.
Fiscal austerity is easing, but growth is expected to slow.

The UK

Confidence reached its highest level since Q1 2017, though it has been volatile since the Brexit vote.
Brexit uncertainty and construction weakness remain key concerns.
Inflation has peaked at 3.0% and is expected to fall.
Falling incomes were cited as a major concern by 39% of respondents.

Ireland

Economic confidence rose sharply, reaching its highest level since Q4 2015.
The country has shown strong recovery with rising wages, falling unemployment, and improved fiscal position.
However, Brexit uncertainty and border issues remain a concern.

Central & Eastern Europe

Confidence fell sharply, reaching its lowest level since Q3 2015.
Russia was the main drag on confidence.
Capital spending is expected to decline due to reduced EU structural funds.
Monetary tightening may slow growth in the region.

South Asia

Confidence was the second highest globally, following North America.
India is expected to grow strongly due to private consumption and fiscal easing.
Pakistan faces challenges due to a currency account deficit and devaluation.

Asia Pacific

Confidence reached its second highest level on record.
China saw a drop in confidence for the second consecutive quarter, but remains at a high level.
Core inflation in China is gradually rising.
Property sector weakness led to a drop in the capital expenditure sub-component.

Middle East

Confidence rebounded strongly, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015.
Oil price recovery to over $70 per barrel boosted government revenues and reduced fiscal austerity.
However, tightening monetary policy and the possibility of a US-China trade war pose risks.

UAE

Confidence improved in Q1 2018, partly due to the fading impact of OPEC production cuts.
Non-oil exports and fiscal easing contributed to the positive trend.
Government spending, employment, and capital expenditure all showed modest improvements.

Africa

Economic confidence reached its highest level since the GECS began.
The region's strong performance is attributed to improved macroeconomic conditions and growth in key sectors.

Main Concerns and Outlook

Trade tensions between the US and China are a major concern, with the possibility of a trade war affecting global supply chains and financial markets.
Monetary tightening in the US could have limited global impact, as interest rate expectations align with the Fed's stance.
Central banks in the Eurozone and Japan are unlikely to follow the Fed's tightening path due to low inflation and spare capacity.
Brexit continues to create uncertainty, particularly for the UK and Ireland.
South Africa faces structural challenges, including education, power sector, and security issues, despite improved confidence after the resignation of President Zuma.

Key Takeaways

The global economy is performing strongly, with economic confidence at record levels.
North America and Africa are the most confident regions.
China and South Asia show resilience despite concerns.
Trade policy, monetary tightening, and Brexit are key risks to global economic stability.
Structural reforms are necessary in several regions to sustain growth and improve long-term prospects.