2017年Q4全球经济形势调查报告（英文版）_28页_906kb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Final Report: Q4, 2017 Summary

Core Content Overview

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide. It tracks economic variables and serves as a trusted barometer for global economic conditions. The Q4 2017 survey gathered 4,011 responses, including over 250 CFOs, and provided insights into economic confidence, concerns, and positive developments across various regions.

Main Indices and Predictive Power

• The GECS indices are strong predictors of GDP growth.
• Daily trend deviations correlate with the VIX, a measure of stock market volatility.
• Global economic confidence dipped slightly in Q4 but remains higher than in the past couple of years.
• The gap between those expecting conditions to worsen and improve widened to 14 percentage points.

Key Concerns of Respondents

• Rising costs were the top concern, cited by 52% of respondents.
• Decreased incomes were the second concern, at 39%.
• Negative impact of foreign currency movements was cited by 28%.
• Suppliers going out of business was the least cited concern, at 10%.

Positive Developments

• The opportunity to lower costs was cited as the main positive development (43%).
• Focusing on innovation was the second most cited positive development (40%).
• Increasing orders was the least cited positive development, at 12%.

Regional Analysis

North America

• Economic confidence improved significantly in Q4, with 31% of respondents more confident and 26% less confident.
• The US showed strong confidence, with a rebound in economic conditions following tax cuts.
• Canada's confidence dipped, with more people expecting conditions to worsen than improve. The housing bubble and household debt remain concerns, though exports are expected to perform well due to US growth.

Caribbean

• Confidence in the Caribbean plummeted in Q4, remaining in negative territory.
• The region was hit hard by hurricanes, affecting the tourism sector and growth prospects.
• Trinidad and Tobago's confidence remained low, with only minor improvements in capital spending.

Middle East

• Confidence levels were low due to the oil price slump since 2015, which has negatively impacted growth prospects.

Western Europe

• Confidence dropped, with a 18 percentage point gap between those expecting conditions to worsen and improve.
• Despite positive economic data, political uncertainty in Germany and structural issues like high debt and unemployment weighed on sentiment.
• Rising costs were the biggest concern, with exchange rate fluctuations also a major worry.

UK

• Economic confidence was volatile, with a significant drop in Q4.
• The Brexit uncertainty continued to affect confidence, though there is optimism about recovery.
• The employment index fell, and the government expenditure sub-component declined following the autumn budget.

Central & Eastern Europe (CEE)

• Confidence reached its lowest level since Q3 2016.
• The employment index fell for a third consecutive quarter, indicating potential slowdowns.
• Government and capital spending indices were stronger, but the region faces capacity constraints and the need for tighter monetary policy.

South Asia

• Confidence in South Asia was joint second with North America, but it dipped slightly from the previous quarter.
• India was the most confident country in the survey, with 26% more respondents expecting conditions to improve than worsen.
• Pakistan's confidence dropped into negative territory, with a deteriorating current account and pressure on the exchange rate.

China

• Confidence dropped, partly due to previous high levels and slowing growth.
• The government is pushing for economic reforms, including reducing the state's dominance and improving the financial sector.
• There is uncertainty about whether these reforms will materialize, with concerns over long-term growth and fiscal sustainability.

Thematic Analysis

US Tax Cuts: Inflation vs. Growth

• The US Tax Cuts and Jobs Act reduced the corporate tax rate to 21%, but the benefits may be limited due to existing deductions.
• The tax cuts could push up inflation, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively.
• The long-term fiscal impact is a concern, with government debt likely to rise to 100% of GDP by 2028.

The Global Financial Crisis 10 Years On

• The global economy is more resilient now, with reduced risky lending and improved regulations.
• Debt levels in emerging markets like China and Turkey are high, raising concerns about potential bubbles and crises.
• Uncertainty over the exit from low interest rates and the risk of asset price inflation remains.

Populism and Protectionism

• The rise of populism and the risk of protectionism, such as potential US trade wars or withdrawal from NAFTA, could destabilize the global economy.
• Brexit and its uncertain outcome continue to affect confidence in the UK and Europe.

Conclusion

The GECS provides a comprehensive view of global economic conditions, highlighting both the resilience and the vulnerabilities of the world economy. While confidence in some regions like North America and India remains high, others such as the Caribbean, Middle East, and Pakistan face significant challenges. The main concerns revolve around rising costs, income decline, and foreign currency movements, while the primary positive development is the opportunity to reduce costs. The report underscores the importance of continued economic reforms and the need for central banks to balance interest rate policies to avoid further instability.