2018年Q2全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）

Summary of the Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q2, 2018

About ACCA and IMA®

ACCA (Association of Chartered Certified Accountants) is a global professional body for accountants, with over 200,000 members and 486,000 students in 180 countries. It supports member development through a network of 101 offices and 7,200 Approved Employers. IMA® (Institute of Management Accountants) is a leading association for management accountants, with over 100,000 members in 140 countries. Together, ACCA and IMA® conduct the Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, tracking economic variables and serving as a trusted barometer for global economic conditions.

Core Findings of the Q2 2018 GECS

Economic Confidence

• Economic confidence dipped slightly in Q2 2018 from its Q1 peak.
• It remains high by historical standards, but signs of a slowing global recovery and trade war fears have dampened sentiment.
• North America and Africa were the most confident regions, while Central & South America was the least confident.
• OECD and non-OECD countries both saw confidence fall below zero, indicating more pessimism than optimism.

Regional Highlights

• United States: Confidence was broadly unchanged and remains high. Tax cuts and low unemployment are supporting consumption and wage growth. However, government spending fell sharply, reflecting unfulfilled promises of infrastructure investment.
• United Kingdom: Confidence plummeted in Q2, consistent with weak GDP growth and Brexit-related uncertainty. The unemployment rate is at its lowest since 1975, but the economy is struggling due to inflation and uncertainty over trade agreements.
• Ireland: Confidence fell sharply in Q2, marking its worst drop since the survey began. This is despite strong economic performance, driven by concerns over the Irish border and housing market overheating.
• Asia Pacific: Confidence in China, the region’s largest economy, dropped to its lowest level in two years due to fears of a trade war with the US. Despite this, the region as a whole maintained high confidence levels, second only to Q1.
• India: Confidence reached its highest level since Q2 2015, driven by strong growth, increasing incomes, and fiscal easing. However, capital and employment spending components remained in negative territory.
• Pakistan: Confidence fell to its lowest level since the start of the survey. The country faces a balance-of-payments crisis, with a devalued currency, rising interest rates, and falling foreign reserves.
• Central & Eastern Europe: Confidence improved slightly in Q2 but remains in negative territory. Rising costs and wage pressures are the main concerns, with a sharp drop in government spending.
• Italy: The new populist coalition government has raised concerns due to its potentially costly policies. While there may be a short-term boost from fiscal stimulus, long-term economic challenges remain unaddressed.

Key Concerns

• Rising costs were cited as the main concern by 61% of respondents, up from 54% in Q1.
• Falling income was the second most cited worry, with 34% of respondents expressing concern.
• Fears of a China-US trade war have intensified, with the US threatening additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This has led to a sharp drop in Chinese stock markets and raised concerns about global trade and investment.
• Emerging markets like Turkey and Argentina have been particularly affected by the rise in US Treasury yields, leading to currency depreciation and economic instability.

Market Reactions and Outlook

• Emerging markets are facing pressure due to the rise in US yields and trade war concerns, but most economies have strong macroeconomic frameworks.
• World trade growth remains stable, with a 4% year-on-year increase, despite the trade war.
• Italy's economic outlook remains uncertain due to its high debt levels and unclear plans to address long-term issues.
• Ireland and Central & Eastern Europe show mixed signals, with some improvement in confidence but ongoing concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Conclusion

The Q2 2018 GECS highlights a global economic environment marked by cautious optimism, with confidence levels slightly lower than the previous quarter but still relatively high. Concerns over trade tensions, rising costs, and geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the UK and Ireland, continue to weigh on sentiment. While some regions like the US and India show resilience, others like Central & Eastern Europe and Pakistan remain vulnerable. The survey underscores the importance of monitoring economic variables and the impact of policy decisions on global markets.