20251121-通惠期货-原油_燃料油日报_美股大跌带动风险资产下行_油价承压_12页_2mb

报告摘要

Crude Oil Market Summary

Key Market Overview

On November 20, crude oil prices showed minor increases: SC主力合约 closed at 464.5元/桶, up slightly from the previous day's range of 457.4-464.5元/桶. Brent crude rose by 0.8% to 64.82美元/桶, and WTI gained 1.0% to 60.57美元/桶. The SC-Brent and SC-WTI spreads widened, indicating stronger relative valuation for Chinese crudes, while the Brent-WTI spread narrowed by about 0.09美元/桶.

Supply-Side Dynamics

US Policy: Proposed expansion of offshore drilling plans in the US, a long-term concern that could increase supply.
Regional Disruptions: Short-term interruptions from Venezuela's export stoppage due to a fire at a upgrading plant, and attacks on Russian refineries in Ilyichorsk and Rayz, which may reduce supply in the region.
India and Sanctions: India's reduced oil production (down 1.2% yoy) but increased export of gasoline and diesel (22.8% and 15.2% yoy), suggesting strong refining activity that could support demand. US sanctions on Russia prompted Indian firm Reliance to halt Russian oil processing, potentially easing Russian export channels.

Demand-Side Analysis

India's Role: High refinery utilization in India (e.g., gasoline and diesel exports surged), indicating robust domestic and imported demand. Low-sulfur fuel oil inventories decreased by 4,370 tons, hinting at improved demand for cleaner fuels.
Other Demand: Japanese and Chinese refining capacity utilization data shows steady or moderate levels, contributing to global demand variance.

Inventory Changes

EIA Data: US crude inventories fell by 342.6K barrels, contrasting with expectations and reversing prior increases. The Cushing inventory decreased by 69.8K barrels, while gasoline and distillate inventories saw mixed changes, impacting short-term liquidity and price pressures.

Price Trend Judgement

Oil prices are in a short-term震荡 downtrend due to US policy risks and potential surplus supply from Russia, but supports from regional supply disruptions and India's demand may limit downside. Long-term volatility risks remain from US drilling expansion and financial pressures on Russian firms, affecting investment plans. Overall, prices may fluctuate within a tight range amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and structural demand-supply mismatches.