2023-01-18-莱坊-Australian_Prime_Residential_Review_Q4_2022_11页_3mb

Australian Prime Residential Market Review Q4 2022

Core Content Overview

The Australian prime luxury residential market has shown resilience and distinct performance compared to the mainstream market, influenced by a combination of economic factors, buyer behavior, and regional dynamics. Despite a decline in sales volume, the market has maintained strong capital growth and rental performance in certain areas.

Key Market Trends

• Sales Volume:

  • The prime residential market recorded a 1.7% annual decrease in sales volume compared to the previous year.
  • Brisbane led with the highest annual sales volume growth at 36%, followed by the Gold Coast at 26%.
  • The Sydney prime market saw a 13.3% decrease in sales volume in the September 2022 quarter, while Melbourne experienced a 36.1% drop in the same quarter.
  • Perth had a 28.4% decline in the September 2022 quarter, with an annual decrease of 14.6%.

• Days on Market:

  • The average days on market for prime properties in Australia was 62 days in the September 2022 quarter, showing a 19-day compression in Brisbane.
  • Sydney and Melbourne had 62 and 69 days on market, respectively, with Perth at 68 and the Gold Coast at 66.

• Capital Growth:

  • Annual capital growth across Australian prime markets was 6.0%, with the Gold Coast leading at 11.3%.
  • Brisbane and Sydney recorded 5.2% and 5.4% annual growth, respectively.
  • Melbourne and Perth had 6.7% and 3.4% growth, respectively.
  • The Gold Coast outperformed the global average, with 18.1% annual rental growth, while Sydney and Melbourne had 8.5% and 6.7% rental growth.

• Rental Performance:

  • Gross rental yields for prime residential property in Australia averaged 2.69%, with the Gold Coast at 3.71%.
  • The Gold Coast also saw the highest annual rental growth at 18.1%, while Sydney and Melbourne had 8.5% and 6.7% growth, respectively.
  • Brisbane had 6.3% annual rental growth, and Perth saw 5.9% growth.

Mainstream vs. Prime Market

• The mainstream residential market experienced a 10.2% drop in sales volume and only 1.5% price growth.
• In contrast, the prime market showed more stability, with 1.7% lower sales volume and 6% higher price growth compared to the previous year.

Economic Drivers

• The UHNW population in Australia grew by 10.1% in 2021, and is expected to grow by 30.9% over the next five years.
• The Australian stock market declined by 11.7% in the year to September 2022, while business investment grew by 3.7%.
• The RBA has raised the cash rate eight times since May 2022, with the rate now at 3.10%, affecting both property values and rental yields.

Forecast

• The Australian prime residential market is forecast to grow by 4% in 2022, 2% in 2023, and 3% in 2024.
• Sydney is expected to see 3% growth in 2022, 0% in 2023, and 1% in 2024.
• Melbourne is forecast to increase by 2% in 2022, then -1% in 2023, and 1% in 2024.
• Perth is expected to grow by 3% in 2022, 1% in 2023, and 2% in 2024.
• Brisbane is projected to grow by 4% in 2022, 2% in 2023, and 4% in 2024.
• The Gold Coast is forecast to increase by 6% in 2022, 3% in 2023, and 3% in 2024.

Key Insights

• The prime market is less transactional due to limited listings and owner preference for renovations over relocation.
• Capital appreciation and investment demand continue to drive the prime market despite economic pressures.
• The Gold Coast stands out for its strong performance in both price growth and rental yields, with the highest annual rental growth in Australia.
• The UHNW population is a key driver of demand, with significant growth projected over the next five years.
• Interest rates and economic conditions are expected to continue influencing the market in the coming years.

Conclusion

The Australian prime luxury residential market remains a high-performing segment, with strong capital growth and robust rental yields in certain cities, particularly the Gold Coast. While sales volume has seen a decline in some areas, the market's resilience is evident, supported by a growing UHNW population and continued demand for premium properties.