中国经济展望_数据解读（2025年11月）-月度经济数据指南_数据含义与未来展望_25页_5mb

## Summary

Overview

• The report analyzes China's economic performance as of October 2025, highlighting a slowdown across various sectors despite policy interventions. Growth is supported but hindered by structural weaknesses.
• Key themes include weak demand, property market distress, and ongoing monetary support from the government and central bank.

Growth

• Consumption: Retail sales edged down in October due to a trade-in subsidy effect, but services picked up amid holiday boosts.
• Investment: Fixed-asset investment contracted further, with infrastructure and manufacturing showing recovery signs, while property remains deeply negative.
• External: Exports dipped unexpectedly due to global demand issues, while imports stabilized.

Property Weakness

• Residential activity slowed in October, with sales, new starts, and investment declining sharply. High inventory-to-sales ratios and policy uncertainty persist.
• UBS expects a gradual stabilization in 2026, with smaller but still negative declines, though risks remain.

Policy Responses

• Fiscal measures include additional debt swaps and budget support, aiming for modest deficit expansion.
• Monetary policy involves rate cuts and liquidity injections to counter stagnation.

Outlook

• For 2026, growth is projected at around 4.5%, with policy easing likely but temporary. Inflation remains subdued, requiring careful demand management.