20210916-USDA-USDA_Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_2021.09.16_20页_430kb

报告摘要

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar production, imports, and market outlook for the 2020/21 and 2021/22 fiscal years. It includes data on production trends, import changes, and the impact of external factors such as natural disasters and trade agreements.

U.S. Sugar Outlook

Production

2021/22 Sugar Production: Increased by 114,000 STRV (short tons, raw value) compared to the previous forecast.
- Beet Sugar: Increased by 124,000 STRV, driven by higher acreage and yields.
- Cane Sugar: Slightly reduced by 10,000 STRV, but the decrease was more than offset by increased beet sugar production.
2020/21 Sugar Production: Forecast at 5,031,000 STRV, a decrease of 32,000 STRV from the previous month.

Imports

Total Imports for 2021/22: Increased by 76,000 STRV.
- TRQ Imports: Increased by 416,000 STRV due to higher permitted levels under the WTO.
- Mexico Imports: Reduced by 365,000 STRV, partially offsetting the increase in TRQ and other imports.
Non-Program Imports: Decreased by 340,000 STRV for 2021/22.

Deliveries

Deliveries for both 2020/21 and 2021/22 increased by 75,000 STRV, attributed to the strong pace of direct consumption imports.

Exports

Exports for 2020/21 were revised upwards based on the pace of shipments.
Exports for 2021/22 remained unchanged at 35,000 STRV.

Stocks-to-Use Ratio

The 2021/22 stocks-to-use ratio is forecast at 13.5 percent, consistent with the U.S.-Mexico Sugar Suspension Agreements.
Beginning stocks for 2021/22 were reduced by 121,000 STRV due to lower 2020/21 production and increased use.

U.S. Sugarbeet Production

2021/22 Sugarbeet Production: Forecast at 34.612 million short tons, up 902,000 STRV (2.6 percent) from last month.
Projected Sugar Recovery: 14.697 percent based on trend, unchanged from last month.
Sugar from Molasses: Forecast at 360,000 STRV, unchanged from last month.
Fiscal Year 2021/22 Beet Sugar Production: 5.202 million STRV, up 123.8 thousand STRV from last month.
Planted Acreage: Reduced slightly to 1.161 million acres for 2021/22, with the largest declines in Nebraska (down 4.8 percent) and others.
Harvested Acreage: Increased by 15,000 acres for 2021/22, with notable increases in Minnesota and North Dakota.

U.S. Cane Sugar Production

Florida Cane Sugar Production: Decreased by 10,000 STRV from last month, with a forecast of 2,005,000 STRV for 2021/22.
Louisiana Cane Sugar Production: Increased slightly to 490,000 acres harvested for sugar and seed, with a yield of 33.2 short tons per acre.
- Sugar Production: Forecast at 3,960,000 STRV for 2021/22, down 8.4 percent from 2020/21.
Texas Cane Sugar Production: Forecast at 34.6 thousand acres harvested for sugar, with a yield of 32.5 short tons per acre.
- Sugar Production: Forecast at 1,125,000 STRV for 2021/22.

Impact of Hurricane Ida

Louisiana: Approximately 25 percent of sugarcane acreage was affected by Hurricane Ida.
Yield Losses: Early estimates of yield losses range from 5 to 25 percent in the affected areas.
Planting Season: Louisiana was in the middle of planting season, with about 75 percent completed when the storm hit.
Refineries: Both major refineries in the New Orleans area were shut down before the storm, with one expected to return to near full capacity by mid-September and the other to recover due to rail service restoration.

Mexican Sugar Outlook

Mexican Production: Unchanged this month.
Imports: Reduced for both 2020/21 and 2021/22, with small changes in use partially offsetting the decline.
Ending Stocks: Both years saw a marginal decrease in ending stocks.

Key Points

TRQ Adjustments: The U.S. increased its WTO TRQ levels for raw and refined sugar in 2021/22, significantly impacting import forecasts.
Stocks-to-Use Ratio: The U.S. is maintaining a 13.5 percent ratio for 2021/22 to comply with international agreements.
Regional Variations: Minnesota, North Dakota, and Idaho showed the largest increases in sugarbeet production, while Nebraska had a notable decrease in planted acreage.

Tables and Data Sources

Table 1: Summary of U.S. sugar supply and use for 2019/20, 2020/21, and 2021/22.
Table 2: Beet sugar production projection calculations for 2020/21 and 2021/22.
Table 3: U.S. sugarbeet planted area for 2016/17 to 2021/22.
Table 4: U.S. sugarbeet harvested area for 2016/17 to 2021/22.
Table 5: Sugarbeet production by state for 2015/16 to 2021/22.
Table 6: U.S. sugarcane and cane sugar production by state for 2015/16 to 2021/22.
Table 7: Crop conditions in Louisiana through September 12, 2021.

Figures

Figure 1: Sugarbeet harvested area and yields, 2007/08 to 2021/22.
Figure 2: Sugarbeet conditions in major producing states as of September 12, 2021.