20150616-USDA-USDA_Sugar___Sweeteners_Outlook_2015.6.16_19页_452kb

Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Summary

Core Content

This report outlines the U.S. and Mexican sugar supply and use projections for the fiscal years 2014/15 and 2015/16, along with global market estimates for 2014/15. It provides insights into production, imports, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks, highlighting the factors influencing these figures and the implications for the sugar market.

Main Points

U.S. Sugar Outlook for 2014/15

• Total Sugar Production: Increased by 33,000 STRV to 8.560 million STRV due to improved early beet harvest prospects for the 2015/16 crop.
• Projected Imports: Increased by 58,000 STRV to 3.522 million STRV, primarily due to a reallocation of the raw sugar TRQ by the U.S. Trade Representative.
• Total Use: Reduced by 109,000 STRV to 12.085 million STRV, mainly due to lower direct consumption imports.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.807 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.95 percent.
• Beet Sugar Production: Increased by 33,000 STRV, contributing to the overall production increase.
• Cane Sugar Production: Remained unchanged at 3.765 million STRV, with Texas experiencing challenges due to poor weather conditions.
• Imports from Mexico: Unchanged at 1.526 million STRV, reflecting the terms of the suspension agreement on countervailing duty investigations.

U.S. Sugar Outlook for 2015/16

• Total Sugar Production: Projected at 8.720 million STRV, a 270,000 STRV increase from the previous year.
• Projected Imports: Reduced by 595,000 STRV to 3.216 million STRV, due to improved domestic supply and lower use.
• Imports from Mexico: Reduced to 1.521 million STRV, down from 2.116 million STRV in May, but only 0.3 percent below 2014/15 levels.
• Total Use: Projected at 12.210 million STRV, with exports unchanged at 200,000 STRV.
• Ending Stocks: Reduced to 1.533 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 12.6 percent.
• TRQ Announcements: The USDA announced the FY2016 raw and refined TRQs, with a 22,046 STRV increase to the FY2015 specialty sugar TRQ.

Mexico Sugar Outlook for 2014/15

• Total Sugar Supply: Projected at 6.927 million MT, a 60,000 MT reduction from the previous month.
• Production: Reduced to 5.940 million MT, due to production reports from Conadesuca.
• Total Use: Unchanged at 6.080 million MT, with human consumption at 4.250 million MT.
• HFCS Consumption: Reduced to 1.420 million MT, keeping total sweetener consumption unchanged.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 847,000 MT, with a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 19.9 percent.

Mexico Sugar Outlook for 2015/16

• Beginning Stocks: Reduced to 846,000 MT, reflecting the 2014/15 changes.
• Production: Projected at 6.000 million MT, unchanged from the previous month.
• Imports: Unchanged at 155,000 MT, with 145,000 MT for IMMEX and 10,000 MT for direct consumption.
• Exports to the U.S.: Reduced by 509,000 MT to 1.306 million MT, due to lower U.S. Needs.
• Ending Stocks: Increased to 1.059 million MT, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 24.6 percent.
• Domestic Deliveries: Increased to 4.633 million MT, driven by higher domestic consumption.

Global Sugar Projections for 2014/15

• Global Production: Increased from 172.5 million MT in November to 174.3 million MT in May.
• Global Consumption: Slightly reduced by 0.4 million MT.
• Ending Stocks: Increased by 2.1 million MT to 44.3 million MT.
• India's Contribution: Accounted for the largest upward revision, increasing production by 2.1 million MT.

Key Information

• Production Trends: Improved harvest conditions and early planting for the 2015/16 crop have led to increased production prospects.
• Import Adjustments: Changes in the TRQ reallocation and trade agreements have affected U.S. and Mexican import levels.
• Stocks-to-Use Ratios: Both U.S. and Mexican stocks-to-use ratios have fluctuated, influenced by changes in supply and demand.
• HFCS Impact: The reduction in HFCS consumption has offset changes in sugar consumption, keeping total sweetener use stable.
• Trade Uncertainties: Trade uncertainties between the U.S. and Mexico have affected import volumes and the ability to meet quotas.

Summary Table

This summary provides an overview of the U.S. and Mexican sugar market outlook, emphasizing production improvements, import adjustments, and the impact of trade agreements and domestic consumption trends.