埃克森美孚-2018全球能源展望（英文）-63页_6mb

ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Outlook for Energy by ExxonMobil provides a comprehensive view of the global energy landscape from 2016 to 2040. It outlines the trajectory of energy demand and supply, emphasizing the role of demographics, economic growth, technological advancements, and policy changes in shaping the future of energy. The report highlights the need for a balanced approach that supports economic progress and addresses climate change through decarbonization and efficiency improvements.

Main Viewpoints

1. Energy Demand Growth

• Global energy demand is expected to rise by about 25% by 2040.
• Non-OECD countries will drive most of the demand growth, with energy use in these regions projected to increase by 40%.
• Electricity demand is a major driver of energy growth, with global electricity demand expected to increase by 60% from 2016 to 2040.
• Electricity demand in non-OECD nations will nearly double, contributing to the overall increase in energy consumption.

2. Shift to Lower-Carbon Fuels

• Renewables and nuclear will see significant growth, contributing close to 40% of the incremental energy supplies needed to meet demand.
• Natural gas is expected to be the fastest-growing energy source, with its share in the energy mix increasing due to its versatility and lower carbon intensity.
• Oil will remain a key component of the energy mix, particularly for commercial transportation and the chemical industry, though light-duty vehicle fuel demand is expected to peak by 2030 due to efficiency gains and the rise of electric vehicles (EVs).

3. Decarbonization and Carbon Intensity

• Global energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to peak by 2040, at about 10% above 2016 levels.
• The carbon intensity of the global economy (CO₂ per unit of GDP) is projected to decline by nearly 45% by 2040, driven by energy efficiency improvements and a shift to cleaner energy sources.

4. Technological and Policy Influence

• Technological advances (e.g., solar, wind, EVs) and policy changes (e.g., support for NDCs under the Paris Agreement) will significantly shape the energy landscape.
• Sensitivities are used to assess the potential impacts of uncertain factors such as EV adoption rates, fuel efficiency improvements, and policy shifts on energy demand and supply.

5. Global Economic and Demographic Trends

• World population is projected to grow from 7.4 billion in 2016 to 9.2 billion in 2040.
• Global GDP is expected to double by 2040, with non-OECD nations contributing the majority of the growth.
• The global middle class is expected to grow by 80% by 2030, reaching more than 5 billion people, with the Asia Pacific region leading the expansion.

6. Energy Intensity and Efficiency

• Energy intensity (energy per unit of GDP) is expected to decline at a faster rate from 2016 to 2040, approaching 2% per year.
• Efficiency improvements will help limit energy demand growth, preventing it from nearly doubling without these gains.

Key Information

1. Global Energy Mix by 2040

• Electricity will account for about 40% of global energy use.
• Natural gas will grow significantly, maintaining a 20% share.
• Oil will continue to be a major energy source, though its role may diminish in some sectors.
• Coal will see a decline in share as the world transitions to lower-emission sources.

2. Transportation Trends

• Transportation energy demand is expected to increase by ~30%.
• Commercial transportation will grow the most, with heavy-duty vehicles and aviation leading in terms of volume and percentage growth, respectively.
• Light-duty vehicle energy demand will peak by 2030, with electric vehicles expected to grow rapidly due to lower costs and policy support, though uncertainty remains due to changing battery costs and regulations.

3. Residential and Commercial Energy Use

• Residential and commercial energy demand will rise by over 20% by 2040.
• Electricity will be the primary energy source to meet this growth, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of the increase.
• Energy efficiency will be a key factor in limiting electricity demand in OECD nations, where it will remain flat or decline.

4. Key Projections

• Global GDP is expected to double by 2040.
• Non-OECD GDP share will rise to ~50% by 2040.
• China and India will be the largest contributors to global GDP and energy demand growth.
• Africa’s population will grow at the fastest rate, with a large working-age population.
• India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation by 2025.

A Role for Everyone

The report emphasizes that seven billion people are involved in the global energy system, and energy solutions must adapt to diverse needs and circumstances. The expansion of the middle class and improvements in living standards will have a profound impact on energy consumption, especially in developing countries.

Conclusion

The Outlook underscores the complex interplay between economic growth, population expansion, technological innovation, and policy decisions. It highlights the importance of a 2°C pathway and the need for practical, cost-effective solutions to meet the dual goals of economic development and climate action. The transition to cleaner energy sources and greater efficiency will be essential in achieving sustainable growth and reducing carbon intensity globally.