埃克森美孚-2018全球能源展望（英文）-63页-7mb

ExxonMobil 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Summary

Core Content

ExxonMobil's 2018 Outlook for Energy provides a comprehensive view of the global energy landscape through 2040, emphasizing the interplay between economic growth, population increase, and the transition toward cleaner energy sources. The report outlines key trends, projections, and the role of policies and technologies in shaping future energy demand and supply.

Main Points

1. Global Energy Demand and Supply Trends

• Energy Demand Growth: Global energy demand is expected to rise by about 25% from 2016 to 2040, driven by population growth and rising living standards.
• Non-OECD Dominance: Nearly all of the growth will occur in non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, where energy demand is projected to increase by about 40%.
• Electricity Growth: Global electricity demand is expected to increase by 60% by 2040, with non-OECD nations accounting for a near doubling of power demand. Electricity will account for nearly all of the growth in total energy demand, reaching a 40% share of the global energy mix by 2040.
• Decarbonization: The carbon intensity of global GDP is expected to decline by nearly 45% by 2040 due to energy efficiency gains and a shift toward less carbon-intensive energy sources.
• Global GDP Growth: World GDP is projected to double by 2040, with non-OECD countries contributing significantly to this growth, reaching about 50% of global GDP by 2040.

2. Energy Mix Evolution

• Renewables and Nuclear: Renewables and nuclear will see strong growth, contributing close to 40% of the incremental energy supplies needed to meet demand.
• Natural Gas: Natural gas is expected to grow the most, reaching about 25% of global energy demand by 2040, with a significant share in electricity generation.
• Oil: Oil will continue to play a leading role, especially in commercial transportation and the chemical industry, though its share of global energy demand is expected to decline.
• Coal: Coal use will remain significant in some regions but will lose substantial market share as the world transitions to lower-emission sources.

3. Transportation Sector Outlook

• Transportation Energy Demand: Global transportation energy demand is expected to increase by about 30% by 2040, with personal mobility and commercial transportation both growing.
• Vehicle Miles Traveled: Total miles traveled by cars, SUVs, and light trucks will increase by about 60%, reaching 14 trillion by 2040.
• Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Fuel efficiency of new vehicles is expected to improve significantly, with average new-car fuel economy rising from 30 mpg to close to 50 mpg by 2040.
• Electric Vehicles (EVs): The EV fleet is expected to grow rapidly due to decreasing battery costs and policy support, though the exact trajectory is uncertain. The Outlook suggests that EVs could reduce liquids demand by up to 1.2 million barrels per day if they reach 100 million on the road by 2040.

4. Residential and Commercial Energy Demand

• Electricity Dominates Growth: Over 90% of the projected growth in residential and commercial energy demand will be met by electricity.
• Non-OECD Growth: In non-OECD countries, household electricity use is expected to rise by about 75%, while OECD countries will see flat or declining electricity use due to efficiency gains.
• Access to Modern Energy: About 1 billion people still lack access to electricity, and 2.5 billion lack access to modern energy for cooking, highlighting the need for expanded energy access.

5. Industrial Energy Demand

• Industrial Growth: Industrial energy demand will increase as global prosperity expands, with the chemicals industry experiencing the highest growth rate.
• Efficiency and Clean Fuels: Energy efficiency improvements and the shift toward cleaner fuels like electricity and natural gas will help limit the growth of industrial energy demand.

6. Policy and Technology Impact

• Policy Role: Well-designed policies will be essential to support economic progress and address climate goals, as they can influence energy use and supply across society.
• Technology Advancements: Technology will be a key driver in improving living standards while addressing climate risks, with wind, solar, and electric vehicles playing a growing role.
• Sensitivities: ExxonMobil uses sensitivities to evaluate how changes in assumptions (e.g., policy shifts or technological progress) could impact the energy outlook.

7. Climate Pathways

• 2°C Pathway: The report includes a section on pursuing a 2°C global warming pathway, highlighting the need for practical, cost-effective solutions to decarbonize the energy system while maintaining economic growth.

Key Takeaways

• Energy Demand Growth: Global energy demand will rise about 25% by 2040, with non-OECD countries driving most of the increase.
• Electricity Expansion: Electricity will be the primary energy source to meet demand, with a significant increase in non-OECD regions.
• Decarbonization: The carbon intensity of the global economy is expected to fall by nearly 45% by 2040.
• Middle-Class Growth: The global middle class is projected to grow by 80% by 2030, leading to increased energy consumption and mobility.
• Policy and Tech Importance: Policies and technologies will be critical in shaping the energy future, balancing economic growth with climate goals.

Conclusion

The 2018 Outlook for Energy underscores the need for a balanced approach that integrates economic growth, energy access, and environmental sustainability. It highlights the significant role of natural gas, renewables, and energy efficiency in meeting future demand while reducing carbon emissions. The report also emphasizes the importance of global collaboration and the need for practical, cost-effective solutions to achieve the 2°C climate goal.