贝恩-2018年全球钻石行业报告（英文）-2018.12-43页-3mb

Summary of The Global Diamond Industry 2018

Core Content

The Global Diamond Report 2018 provides an overview of the diamond industry's performance in 2017 and the first half of 2018, highlighting key trends, market dynamics, and future outlook through 2030. The report is prepared by Bain & Company and the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC), based on secondary research, financial data, and interviews with industry stakeholders.

Main Viewpoints

• Industry Resilience: Despite a period of high volatility, the diamond industry showed resilience in 2017, with approximately 2% growth across all segments. 2018 is expected to see continued growth, with accelerated growth in the mining and jewelry retail segments.
• Rough Diamond Production: In 2017, rough diamond production increased by 19%, marking the highest level in eight years. This growth was driven by lower-quality mines and tailings, which diluted the revenue impact. Production is expected to remain stable or decline slightly in 2018, with major producers like Mirny and Voorspoed facing closures.
• Midstream Performance: The midstream segment (cutting and polishing) saw slightly increased revenues in 2017, supported by rising jewelry demand. Profitability remained stable at 1% to 3%, with some efficient players achieving up to 10% margins. Midstream inventories increased, particularly for smaller and lower-quality diamonds, as companies prepared for future demand. India continued to dominate the cutting and polishing industry, driven by low labor costs, favorable regulations, and better access to financing.
• Jewelry Retail: Global diamond jewelry sales grew by 2% in US dollar terms in 2017, fueled by strong US macroeconomic fundamentals and revived demand from Chinese millennials. The self-purchase category in China saw growth. However, Europe and Japan faced challenges due to lower consumer confidence and weak economic conditions, respectively.
• Lab-Grown Diamonds: Lab-grown diamonds are becoming a significant trend, with De Beers Group launching Lightbox Jewelry in September 2018. Lightbox uses a linear pricing model and does not provide grading reports, positioning lab-grown diamonds as fashion jewelry. The impact on natural diamond demand is expected to be limited up to 5% to 10% in value terms by 2030, depending on consumer perceptions.
• Digital Transformation: Digital technologies are reshaping the diamond industry, enhancing transparency, efficiency, and customer experience. Blockchain projects help track diamond origins, while AI and automation are being used in mining operations and cutting/polishing processes. The rise of social media and direct-to-consumer models is also influencing retail strategies and consumer behavior.
• Consumer Preferences: Younger generations, particularly millennials and Gen Z, are shifting preferences, favoring self-purchase and online shopping. These groups are more influenced by social media, influencers, and customer reviews, prompting companies to rethink marketing and sales strategies.

Key Industry Trends

1. Digital Technologies:

   • Enhancing transparency and efficiency across the value chain.
   • Enabling new business models, such as blockchain tracking, AI, and automation.
   • Influencing consumer behavior and retail strategies.

2. Lab-Grown Diamonds:

   • Expected to increase in accessibility due to declining production costs.
   • May displace some demand for natural diamonds, but the impact is limited if natural diamonds are positioned as luxury items.
   • Lightbox Jewelry introduced a new pricing model and no grading reports.

3. Generational Shifts:

   • Younger consumers are driving changes in marketing and sales approaches.
   • Self-purchase and social media shopping are growing.
   • Influencer marketing is becoming a key strategy.

Key Information

• 2017 Growth: The diamond industry experienced 2% growth across all segments, with positive EBIT margins in the midstream and mining segments.
• 2018 Outlook: Revenue growth is expected to continue, with accelerated growth in mining and jewelry retail. Holiday sales will determine the final outcome of the year.
• Supply and Demand: Natural rough diamond supply is projected to stay flat or grow up to 2% annually through 2030. Lab-grown diamond demand is estimated to displace 5% to 10% of natural diamond demand.
• Regional Dynamics:
  • US: Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and consumer credit growth.
  • China: Resurging demand from millennials and favorable tax policies.
  • India: Dominant in cutting and polishing, with 90% of global polished diamond manufacturing.
  • Europe and Japan: Expected to rebound due to increased tourism and economic recovery.
• Challenges:
  • Currency fluctuations impacted profitability in 2017.
  • Financing issues persist in some midstream regions.
  • Trade tensions between the US and China may affect growth in the short to medium term.

Conclusion

The diamond industry remains resilient and adaptable, with positive growth trends in 2017 and optimistic projections for 2018. Digital technologies and lab-grown diamonds are key drivers of transformation, while consumer preferences are evolving to favor online shopping and social media influence. The long-term outlook is positive, with natural diamond demand expected to grow modestly, and the midstream and retail segments adapting to these changes.