2016年全球钻石行业报告（英文版）_44页_9mb

Summary of THE GLOBAL DIAMOND INDUSTRY 2016

Core Content

The 2016 global diamond industry report, prepared by the Antwerp World Diamond Centre (AWDC) and Bain & Company, provides an in-depth analysis of the diamond value chain, focusing on production, cutting and polishing, retail, and the impact of the millennial generation on the market. The report covers developments from 2015 and early 2016, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for the industry.

Main Points

• Market Overview:
  Global diamond jewelry consumption entered a moderation phase after a period of growth from 2012 to 2014. In 2015, retail sales grew by 3% at constant exchange rates but declined by 2% in USD terms. The US remained a key growth engine, while China, Europe, and Japan saw mixed performance.

• Rough-Diamond Production:

  • Global rough diamond production increased by 2% in 2015 to 127 million carats.
  • The largest increases were in Australia and Russia, while Africa saw declines due to De Beers reducing output in Botswana.
  • Rough diamond sales dropped 24% in 2015 as midstream players sold down inventories.
  • By early 2016, rough sales rebounded by 20%, driven by restocking efforts.
  • ALROSA saw an improvement in EBIT margin from 36% to 43% in 2015 due to the devalued Russian currency, while De Beers reduced production by 12%.

• Cutting and Polishing:

  • Revenues declined by 2% in 2015 due to reduced demand and inventory buildup.
  • The midstream market share of India and China rose to 90%, attributed to cost efficiency and the consignment model.
  • In 2016, midstream players began restocking, leading to margin improvements.
  • The segment is expected to remain under pressure due to price volatility and limited leverage over suppliers and retailers.

• Diamond Jewelry Retail:

  • Global diamond jewelry sales grew 3% at constant exchange rates in 2015, but 2% decline in USD terms.
  • The US experienced flat to negative sales growth in 2016 due to economic slowdown in energy states and a shift in consumer spending from baby boomers to millennials.
  • China saw a slight decline in sales at constant exchange rates due to reduced tourist flows to Hong Kong and Macao, while mainland China continued to show positive growth.
  • Europe and Japan benefited from currency depreciation, leading to positive local currency growth, but USD terms were affected negatively.
  • India's strong GDP and disposable income growth supported demand, though rupee devaluation impacted USD revenue.

• Millennial Consumers:

  • Millennials in China, India, and the US represent 900 million people with a combined gross income of $8 trillion, equivalent to the 4th largest economy in the world.
  • They are a significant opportunity for the diamond industry, with similar preferences to previous generations but different shopping behaviors.
  • China and India consider jewelry the top gifting category, while US millennials rank it third, after money and electronics.
  • Millennials tend to spend similar proportions of their income on jewelry as other age groups.
  • Online activity is more prominent among US millennials, while department stores are preferred in India.
  • Family advice is a common influence on millennial purchasing decisions.

Key Industry Challenges

• Midstream Sector:

  • Continued pressure on profitability due to price volatility and inventory management.
  • Financing access and business model improvements are critical for sustainability.

• Market Volatility:

  • The US dollar's strength in 2015 and 2016 negatively impacted growth in USD terms.
  • Synthetic diamonds pose a competitive risk, but the industry is countering this through emotional marketing and brand-building.

• Long-Term Outlook:

  • The industry is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance through 2030.
  • Rough diamond supply is projected to decline by 1-2% annually in value terms.
  • Demand recovery is anticipated, with 2-5% annual growth in the long term, supported by US fundamentals and middle-class growth in China and India.

Conclusion

Despite challenges in 2015, the diamond industry showed signs of recovery in 2016, with midstream restocking and improved margins. The millennial generation presents a key growth opportunity, requiring tailored marketing strategies and customer engagement. The long-term outlook remains positive, with the industry poised for growth as long as responsible production and effective marketing are maintained.